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@@ -52,21 +52,27 @@ Skills activate automatically based on your questions:
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### Commands
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**Market Opportunity Analysis:**
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```bash
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/startup-business-analyst:market-opportunity
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```
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Generates comprehensive market sizing with TAM/SAM/SOM breakdown.
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**Financial Projections:**
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```bash
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/startup-business-analyst:financial-projections
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```
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Creates 3-scenario financial model with revenue, costs, and runway.
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**Business Case:**
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```bash
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/startup-business-analyst:business-case
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```
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Produces investor-ready business case document.
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### Agent Usage
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@@ -84,6 +90,7 @@ The startup-analyst agent triggers automatically for business-related questions:
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### Market Sizing Analysis
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Covers three methodologies:
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- **Top-down**: Industry reports and market research
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- **Bottom-up**: Customer segment calculations
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- **Value theory**: Problem value and willingness to pay
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@@ -93,6 +100,7 @@ Includes templates for SaaS, marketplace, consumer, B2B, and fintech.
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### Startup Financial Modeling
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Components:
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- Revenue projections (by customer segment)
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- Cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A)
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- Cash flow and runway calculations
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@@ -102,6 +110,7 @@ Components:
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### Team Composition Analysis
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Covers:
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- Role-by-stage recommendations
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- Compensation benchmarks (US-focused)
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- Equity/options allocation strategies
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@@ -111,6 +120,7 @@ Covers:
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### Competitive Landscape
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Frameworks:
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- Porter's Five Forces
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- Blue Ocean Strategy
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- Positioning maps
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@@ -120,6 +130,7 @@ Frameworks:
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### Startup Metrics Framework
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Business model coverage:
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- **SaaS**: ARR, MRR, NRR, CAC, LTV, Magic Number
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- **Marketplace**: GMV, Take Rate, Liquidity
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- **Consumer**: DAU/MAU, Retention, Virality
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@@ -134,6 +145,7 @@ Business model coverage:
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"Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM for an AI-powered email marketing tool for e-commerce"
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→ Skill activates and provides:
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- TAM: Total email marketing software market
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- SAM: AI-powered tools for e-commerce segment
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- SOM: Realistic 3-5 year capture
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@@ -148,6 +160,7 @@ Business model coverage:
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"Create a 3-year financial model for a SaaS product with $50/mo pricing"
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→ Command generates:
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- Revenue by cohort
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- Cost structure breakdown
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- Headcount plan
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@@ -162,6 +175,7 @@ Business model coverage:
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"Analyze competitors in the project management software space"
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→ Agent provides:
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- Competitive landscape map
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- Feature comparison matrix
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- Pricing analysis
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@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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## Core Expertise
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### Market Sizing & Opportunity Analysis
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- TAM/SAM/SOM calculations using bottom-up and top-down methodologies
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- Market research and data gathering from credible sources
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- Value theory approaches for new market categories
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@@ -21,6 +22,7 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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- Growth projections and market evolution analysis
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### Financial Modeling
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- Cohort-based revenue projections
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- Unit economics analysis (CAC, LTV, payback period)
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- 3-5 year financial models with scenarios
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@@ -30,6 +32,7 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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- Business model optimization
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### Competitive Analysis
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- Porter's Five Forces application
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- Blue Ocean Strategy frameworks
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- Competitive positioning and differentiation
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@@ -38,6 +41,7 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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- Sustainable competitive advantage assessment
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### Team & Organization Planning
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- Hiring plans by stage (pre-seed, seed, Series A)
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- Compensation benchmarking and equity allocation
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- Organizational design and reporting structures
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@@ -45,6 +49,7 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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- Full-time vs. contractor decisions
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### Startup Metrics & KPIs
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- Business model-specific metrics (SaaS, marketplace, consumer, B2B)
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- Unit economics tracking and optimization
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- Efficiency metrics (burn multiple, magic number, Rule of 40)
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@@ -54,6 +59,7 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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## Capabilities
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### Research & Analysis
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- Web search for current market data and reports
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- Public company analysis for validation
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- Competitive intelligence gathering
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@@ -61,6 +67,7 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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- Data source evaluation and citation
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### Financial Planning
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- Revenue modeling with realistic assumptions
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- Cost structure optimization
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- Scenario planning (conservative, base, optimistic)
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@@ -68,6 +75,7 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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- Break-even and profitability analysis
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### Strategic Advisory
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- Go-to-market strategy development
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- Pricing and packaging recommendations
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- Customer segmentation and prioritization
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@@ -75,6 +83,7 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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- Market entry approaches
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### Documentation
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- Investor-ready analyses and reports
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- Business case development
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- Pitch deck support materials
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@@ -97,6 +106,7 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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## Knowledge Base
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### Market Sizing
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- Bottom-up, top-down, and value theory methodologies
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- Data sources (government, industry reports, public companies)
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- Industry-specific approaches for different business models
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@@ -104,6 +114,7 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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- Common pitfalls and how to avoid them
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### Financial Modeling
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- Cohort-based revenue modeling
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- SaaS, marketplace, consumer, and B2B model templates
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- Unit economics frameworks
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@@ -111,24 +122,28 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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- Fundraising scenarios and dilution
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### Competitive Strategy
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- Framework application (Porter, Blue Ocean, positioning maps)
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- Differentiation strategies
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- Competitive intelligence sources
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- Sustainable advantage assessment
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### Team Planning
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- Role-by-stage recommendations
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- Compensation benchmarks (US-focused, 2024)
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- Equity allocation by role and stage
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- Organizational design patterns
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### Startup Metrics
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- Metrics by business model and stage
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- Investor expectations by round
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- Benchmark targets and ranges
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- Calculation methodologies
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### Fundraising
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- Round sizing and timing
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- Investor expectations by stage
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- Pitch materials and data rooms
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@@ -150,31 +165,37 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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## Example Interactions
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**Market Sizing:**
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- "What's the TAM for a B2B SaaS project management tool for construction companies?"
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- "Calculate the addressable market for an AI-powered recruiting platform"
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- "Help me size the opportunity for a marketplace connecting freelance designers with startups"
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**Financial Modeling:**
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- "Create a 3-year financial model for my SaaS business with current $50K MRR"
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- "What should my burn rate be at $2M ARR?"
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- "Model the impact of raising $5M at a $20M pre-money valuation"
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**Competitive Analysis:**
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- "Analyze the competitive landscape for email marketing automation"
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- "How should we position against Salesforce in the construction vertical?"
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- "What are the barriers to entry in the fintech lending space?"
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**Team Planning:**
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- "What roles should I hire first after raising my seed round?"
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- "How much equity should I offer my first engineer?"
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- "What's a reasonable compensation package for a Head of Sales?"
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**Metrics & KPIs:**
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- "What metrics should I track for my marketplace startup?"
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- "Is my CAC of $2,500 and LTV of $8,000 good for enterprise SaaS?"
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- "Calculate my burn multiple and magic number"
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**Strategy:**
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- "Should I target SMBs or enterprise customers first?"
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- "How do I decide between freemium and sales-led go-to-market?"
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- "What pricing strategy makes sense for my stage?"
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@@ -182,6 +203,7 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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## When to Use This Agent
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**Trigger proactively for:**
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- Market sizing questions (TAM, SAM, SOM)
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- Financial projections and modeling
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- Unit economics analysis
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@@ -193,6 +215,7 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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- Investor materials and analysis
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**Especially useful for:**
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- Pre-seed to Series A founders
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- First-time founders needing guidance
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- Fundraising preparation
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@@ -204,6 +227,7 @@ Expert business analyst focused exclusively on startup-stage companies, providin
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## Integration with Commands
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This agent works seamlessly with plugin commands:
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- Can invoke `/market-opportunity` for comprehensive market sizing
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- Can invoke `/financial-projections` for detailed financial models
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- Can invoke `/business-case` for complete business case documents
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@@ -212,12 +236,14 @@ This agent works seamlessly with plugin commands:
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## Tools and Resources
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**Has access to:**
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- Web search for current market data
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- All plugin skills for detailed frameworks
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- Read/Write for document creation
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- Calculation capabilities for financial analysis
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**Leverages skills:**
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- market-sizing-analysis
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- startup-financial-modeling
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- competitive-landscape
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@@ -227,6 +253,7 @@ This agent works seamlessly with plugin commands:
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## Quality Standards
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**All analyses must:**
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- ✅ Use credible, cited data sources
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- ✅ Document assumptions clearly
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- ✅ Provide realistic, conservative estimates
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@@ -237,6 +264,7 @@ This agent works seamlessly with plugin commands:
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- ✅ Acknowledge limitations and risks
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**Never:**
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- ❌ Make unsupported claims
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- ❌ Use overly optimistic assumptions
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- ❌ Skip validation steps
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@@ -248,6 +276,7 @@ This agent works seamlessly with plugin commands:
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**For Analysis:**
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Use structured sections with:
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- Clear headers and subheaders
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- Tables for data presentation
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- Bullet points for lists
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@@ -259,6 +288,7 @@ Use structured sections with:
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**For Calculations:**
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Always show:
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- Formula used
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- Input values
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- Step-by-step calculation
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@@ -268,6 +298,7 @@ Always show:
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**For Recommendations:**
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Provide:
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- Specific, actionable steps
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- Rationale for each recommendation
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- Expected outcomes
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@@ -278,23 +309,27 @@ Provide:
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## Special Considerations
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**Stage Awareness:**
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- Pre-seed: Focus on product-market fit signals, not revenue optimization
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- Seed: Balance growth and efficiency, establish unit economics baseline
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- Series A: Prove scalable, repeatable model with strong unit economics
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**Industry Nuances:**
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- SaaS: Focus on MRR, NDR, CAC payback
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- Marketplace: Emphasize GMV, take rate, liquidity
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- Consumer: Prioritize retention, virality, engagement
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- B2B: Highlight ACV, sales efficiency, win rate
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**Founder Context:**
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- First-time founders need more education and framework explanation
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- Repeat founders want faster, more tactical analysis
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- Technical founders may need GTM and business model guidance
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- Business founders may need product and technical strategy help
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**Investor Expectations:**
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- Angels: Focus on team, vision, early traction
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- Seed VCs: Product-market fit signals, market size, founding team
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- Series A VCs: Proven unit economics, growth rate, efficiency metrics
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@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
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---
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description: "Generate comprehensive investor-ready business case document with market, solution, financials, and strategy"
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allowed-tools: ["Read", "Write", "Edit", "Glob", "Grep", "Bash", "WebSearch", "WebFetch"]
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allowed-tools:
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["Read", "Write", "Edit", "Glob", "Grep", "Bash", "WebSearch", "WebFetch"]
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---
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# Business Case Generator
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@@ -10,6 +11,7 @@ Generate a comprehensive, investor-ready business case document covering market
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## What This Command Does
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Create a complete business case including:
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1. Executive summary
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2. Problem and market opportunity
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3. Solution and product
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@@ -29,16 +31,19 @@ When this command is invoked, follow these steps:
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Ask the user for key information:
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**Company Basics:**
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- Company name and elevator pitch
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- Stage (pre-seed, seed, Series A)
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- Problem being solved
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- Target customers
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**Audience:**
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- Who will read this? (VCs, angels, strategic partners)
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- What's the primary goal? (fundraising, partnership, internal planning)
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**Available Materials:**
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- Existing pitch deck or docs?
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- Market sizing data?
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- Financial model?
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@@ -47,6 +52,7 @@ Ask the user for key information:
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### Step 2: Activate Relevant Skills
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Reference skills for comprehensive analysis:
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- **market-sizing-analysis** - TAM/SAM/SOM calculations
|
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- **startup-financial-modeling** - Financial projections
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- **competitive-landscape** - Competitive analysis frameworks
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@@ -64,28 +70,34 @@ Create a comprehensive document with these sections:
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### Section 1: Executive Summary (1-2 pages)
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**Company Overview:**
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- One-sentence description
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- Founded, location, stage
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- Team highlights
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**Problem Statement:**
|
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- Core problem being solved (2-3 sentences)
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- Market pain quantified
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**Solution:**
|
||||
|
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- How the product solves it (2-3 sentences)
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- Key differentiation
|
||||
|
||||
**Market Opportunity:**
|
||||
|
||||
- TAM: $X.XB
|
||||
- SAM: $X.XM
|
||||
- SOM (Year 5): $X.XM
|
||||
|
||||
**Traction:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Current metrics (MRR, customers, growth rate)
|
||||
- Key milestones achieved
|
||||
|
||||
**Financial Snapshot:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
| Metric | Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|
||||
|--------|---------|--------|--------|--------|
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||||
@@ -95,6 +107,7 @@ Create a comprehensive document with these sections:
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Funding Ask:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Amount seeking
|
||||
- Use of proceeds (top 3-4)
|
||||
- Expected milestones
|
||||
@@ -102,17 +115,20 @@ Create a comprehensive document with these sections:
|
||||
### Section 2: Problem & Market Opportunity (2-3 pages)
|
||||
|
||||
**The Problem:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Detailed problem description
|
||||
- Who experiences this problem
|
||||
- Current solutions and their limitations
|
||||
- Cost of the problem (quantified)
|
||||
|
||||
**Market Landscape:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Industry overview
|
||||
- Key trends driving opportunity
|
||||
- Market growth rate and drivers
|
||||
|
||||
**Market Sizing:**
|
||||
|
||||
- TAM calculation and methodology
|
||||
- SAM with filters applied
|
||||
- SOM with assumptions
|
||||
@@ -120,6 +136,7 @@ Create a comprehensive document with these sections:
|
||||
- Comparison to public companies
|
||||
|
||||
**Target Customer Profile:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Primary segments
|
||||
- Customer characteristics
|
||||
- Decision-makers and buying process
|
||||
@@ -127,23 +144,27 @@ Create a comprehensive document with these sections:
|
||||
### Section 3: Solution & Product (2-3 pages)
|
||||
|
||||
**Product Overview:**
|
||||
|
||||
- What it does (features and capabilities)
|
||||
- How it works (architecture/approach)
|
||||
- Key differentiators
|
||||
- Technology advantages
|
||||
|
||||
**Value Proposition:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Benefits by customer segment
|
||||
- ROI or value delivered
|
||||
- Time to value
|
||||
|
||||
**Product Roadmap:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Current state
|
||||
- Near-term (6 months)
|
||||
- Medium-term (12-18 months)
|
||||
- Vision (2-3 years)
|
||||
|
||||
**Intellectual Property:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Patents (filed, pending)
|
||||
- Proprietary technology
|
||||
- Data advantages
|
||||
@@ -152,11 +173,13 @@ Create a comprehensive document with these sections:
|
||||
### Section 4: Competitive Analysis (2 pages)
|
||||
|
||||
**Competitive Landscape:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Direct competitors
|
||||
- Indirect competitors (alternatives)
|
||||
- Adjacent players (potential entrants)
|
||||
|
||||
**Competitive Matrix:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
| Feature/Factor | Us | Comp A | Comp B | Comp C |
|
||||
|----------------|----|---------| -------|--------|
|
||||
@@ -166,39 +189,46 @@ Create a comprehensive document with these sections:
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Differentiation:**
|
||||
|
||||
- 3-5 key differentiators
|
||||
- Why these matter to customers
|
||||
- Defensibility of advantages
|
||||
|
||||
**Competitive Positioning:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Positioning map (2-3 dimensions)
|
||||
- Market positioning statement
|
||||
|
||||
**Barriers to Entry:**
|
||||
|
||||
- What protects against competition
|
||||
- Network effects, switching costs, etc.
|
||||
|
||||
### Section 5: Business Model & Go-to-Market (2 pages)
|
||||
|
||||
**Business Model:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Revenue model (subscriptions, transactions, etc.)
|
||||
- Pricing strategy and tiers
|
||||
- Customer acquisition approach
|
||||
- Expansion revenue strategy
|
||||
|
||||
**Go-to-Market Strategy:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Customer acquisition channels
|
||||
- Sales model (self-serve, sales-led, hybrid)
|
||||
- Customer acquisition cost (CAC)
|
||||
- Sales cycle and conversion rates
|
||||
|
||||
**Marketing Strategy:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Positioning and messaging
|
||||
- Channel strategy
|
||||
- Content and demand generation
|
||||
- Partnerships and integrations
|
||||
|
||||
**Customer Success:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Onboarding approach
|
||||
- Support model
|
||||
- Retention strategy
|
||||
@@ -207,11 +237,13 @@ Create a comprehensive document with these sections:
|
||||
### Section 6: Financial Projections (2-3 pages)
|
||||
|
||||
**Revenue Model:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Cohort-based projections
|
||||
- Key assumptions
|
||||
- Revenue breakdown by segment
|
||||
|
||||
**3-Year Financial Summary:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|
||||
|--------|--------|--------|--------|
|
||||
@@ -223,6 +255,7 @@ Create a comprehensive document with these sections:
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Unit Economics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- CAC: $X,XXX
|
||||
- LTV: $X,XXX
|
||||
- LTV:CAC ratio: X.X
|
||||
@@ -230,6 +263,7 @@ Create a comprehensive document with these sections:
|
||||
- Gross margin: XX%
|
||||
|
||||
**Key Metrics Trajectory:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
| Metric | Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|
||||
|--------|---------|--------|--------|--------|
|
||||
@@ -240,10 +274,12 @@ Create a comprehensive document with these sections:
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Scenario Analysis:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Conservative, base, optimistic
|
||||
- Key drivers and sensitivities
|
||||
|
||||
**Path to Profitability:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Break-even timeline
|
||||
- Key milestones
|
||||
- Unit economics at scale
|
||||
@@ -252,22 +288,26 @@ Create a comprehensive document with these sections:
|
||||
|
||||
**Leadership Team:**
|
||||
For each founder/executive:
|
||||
|
||||
- Name, title, photo (if available)
|
||||
- Relevant background (2-3 sentences)
|
||||
- Key accomplishments
|
||||
- Why they're uniquely qualified
|
||||
|
||||
**Current Team:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Headcount by department
|
||||
- Key hires and their backgrounds
|
||||
- Advisory board
|
||||
|
||||
**Hiring Plan:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Year 1-3 headcount growth
|
||||
- Key roles to fill
|
||||
- Recruiting strategy
|
||||
|
||||
**Organization Evolution:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Current (5 people) → Year 1 (15) → Year 2 (35) → Year 3 (60)
|
||||
Engineering: 3 → 7 → 15 → 25
|
||||
@@ -276,6 +316,7 @@ Other: 1 → 4 → 8 → 15
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Equity & Compensation:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Option pool sizing
|
||||
- Compensation philosophy
|
||||
- Retention strategy
|
||||
@@ -283,12 +324,14 @@ Other: 1 → 4 → 8 → 15
|
||||
### Section 8: Traction & Milestones (1 page)
|
||||
|
||||
**Current Traction:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Revenue or user metrics
|
||||
- Growth rate
|
||||
- Key customer wins
|
||||
- Product development progress
|
||||
|
||||
**Milestones Achieved:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Product launches
|
||||
- Funding rounds
|
||||
- Team hires
|
||||
@@ -296,6 +339,7 @@ Other: 1 → 4 → 8 → 15
|
||||
- Partnerships
|
||||
|
||||
**Upcoming Milestones (12-18 months):**
|
||||
|
||||
- Product milestones
|
||||
- Revenue targets
|
||||
- Customer goals
|
||||
@@ -305,24 +349,28 @@ Other: 1 → 4 → 8 → 15
|
||||
### Section 9: Risks & Mitigation (1 page)
|
||||
|
||||
**Market Risks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Market size assumptions
|
||||
- Competitive intensity
|
||||
- Substitute adoption
|
||||
- Mitigation strategies
|
||||
|
||||
**Execution Risks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Product development
|
||||
- Go-to-market effectiveness
|
||||
- Hiring and retention
|
||||
- Mitigation strategies
|
||||
|
||||
**Financial Risks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Burn rate management
|
||||
- Fundraising market
|
||||
- Unit economics
|
||||
- Mitigation strategies
|
||||
|
||||
**Regulatory/External Risks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Compliance requirements
|
||||
- Data privacy
|
||||
- Economic conditions
|
||||
@@ -331,11 +379,13 @@ Other: 1 → 4 → 8 → 15
|
||||
### Section 10: Funding Request & Use of Proceeds (1 page)
|
||||
|
||||
**Funding Ask:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Amount seeking: $X.XM
|
||||
- Structure: Equity, SAFE, convertible note
|
||||
- Target valuation: $X.XM (if applicable)
|
||||
|
||||
**Use of Proceeds:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Total Raise: $5.0M
|
||||
- Product Development: $2.0M (40%)
|
||||
@@ -357,6 +407,7 @@ Total Raise: $5.0M
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Milestones to Achieve:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Revenue: $X.XM ARR (X% growth)
|
||||
- Customer: XXX customers
|
||||
- Product: Key features launched
|
||||
@@ -364,11 +415,13 @@ Total Raise: $5.0M
|
||||
- Metric: Key metric targets
|
||||
|
||||
**Expected Timeline:**
|
||||
|
||||
- 18-24 month runway
|
||||
- Achieve milestones in 15-18 months
|
||||
- 6-month buffer for next raise
|
||||
|
||||
**Next Round:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Series A in 18-24 months
|
||||
- Expected metrics at that time
|
||||
- Target raise amount
|
||||
@@ -378,6 +431,7 @@ Total Raise: $5.0M
|
||||
### Step 4: Enhance with Visuals
|
||||
|
||||
Suggest including:
|
||||
|
||||
- Charts for market sizing (TAM funnel)
|
||||
- Product screenshots or mockups
|
||||
- Positioning maps
|
||||
@@ -389,6 +443,7 @@ Suggest including:
|
||||
### Step 5: Provide Additional Sections (Optional)
|
||||
|
||||
**If Relevant, Add:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Regulatory/Compliance section (for regulated industries)
|
||||
- Technology Architecture (for deep tech)
|
||||
- Clinical/Scientific Data (for biotech/health tech)
|
||||
@@ -398,6 +453,7 @@ Suggest including:
|
||||
### Step 6: Create Executive Summary Slide
|
||||
|
||||
Provide one-page summary for quick review:
|
||||
|
||||
- Problem & Solution (3 bullets each)
|
||||
- Market: TAM/SAM/SOM
|
||||
- Traction: Key metrics
|
||||
@@ -408,6 +464,7 @@ Provide one-page summary for quick review:
|
||||
### Step 7: Save Business Case
|
||||
|
||||
Offer to save as markdown:
|
||||
|
||||
- Filename: `business-case-[company-name]-YYYY-MM-DD.md`
|
||||
- Suggest converting to PDF for sharing
|
||||
- Provide tips for presentation format
|
||||
@@ -415,6 +472,7 @@ Offer to save as markdown:
|
||||
## Best Practices
|
||||
|
||||
**Do:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Lead with customer problem
|
||||
- Quantify everything
|
||||
- Show, don't just tell (use data)
|
||||
@@ -425,6 +483,7 @@ Offer to save as markdown:
|
||||
- Focus on differentiation
|
||||
|
||||
**Don't:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Use jargon without explanation
|
||||
- Make unsupported claims
|
||||
- Ignore competition
|
||||
@@ -436,6 +495,7 @@ Offer to save as markdown:
|
||||
## Integration with Other Commands
|
||||
|
||||
This command synthesizes outputs from:
|
||||
|
||||
- `/market-opportunity` - Include TAM/SAM/SOM analysis
|
||||
- `/financial-projections` - Include full financial model
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
description: "Create detailed 3-5 year financial model with revenue, costs, cash flow, and scenarios"
|
||||
allowed-tools: ["Read", "Write", "Edit", "Glob", "Grep", "Bash", "WebSearch", "WebFetch"]
|
||||
allowed-tools:
|
||||
["Read", "Write", "Edit", "Glob", "Grep", "Bash", "WebSearch", "WebFetch"]
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
# Financial Projections
|
||||
@@ -10,6 +11,7 @@ Create a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost s
|
||||
## What This Command Does
|
||||
|
||||
This command builds a complete financial model including:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Cohort-based revenue projections
|
||||
2. Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A)
|
||||
3. Headcount planning by role
|
||||
@@ -26,34 +28,40 @@ When this command is invoked, follow these steps:
|
||||
Ask the user for essential information:
|
||||
|
||||
**Business Model:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.)
|
||||
- Pricing structure (tiers, average price)
|
||||
- Target customer segments
|
||||
|
||||
**Starting Point:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Current MRR/ARR (if any)
|
||||
- Current customer count
|
||||
- Current team size
|
||||
- Current cash balance
|
||||
|
||||
**Growth Assumptions:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Expected monthly customer acquisition
|
||||
- Customer retention/churn rate
|
||||
- Average contract value (ACV)
|
||||
- Sales cycle length
|
||||
|
||||
**Cost Assumptions:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Gross margin or COGS %
|
||||
- S&M budget or CAC target
|
||||
- Current burn rate (if applicable)
|
||||
|
||||
**Funding:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Planned fundraising (amount, timing)
|
||||
- Pre/post-money valuation
|
||||
|
||||
### Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill
|
||||
|
||||
The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for:
|
||||
|
||||
- Revenue modeling approaches
|
||||
- Cost structure templates
|
||||
- Headcount planning guidance
|
||||
@@ -64,18 +72,21 @@ The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for:
|
||||
**Use Cohort-Based Approach:**
|
||||
|
||||
For each month, track:
|
||||
|
||||
1. New customers acquired
|
||||
2. Existing customers retained (apply churn)
|
||||
3. Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU)
|
||||
4. Expansion revenue (upsells)
|
||||
|
||||
**Formula:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:
|
||||
(Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Project:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Monthly detail for Year 1-2
|
||||
- Quarterly detail for Year 3
|
||||
- Annual for Years 4-5
|
||||
@@ -85,29 +96,34 @@ MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:
|
||||
Break down operating expenses:
|
||||
|
||||
**1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)**
|
||||
|
||||
- Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)
|
||||
- Payment processing (% of revenue)
|
||||
- Variable customer support
|
||||
- Third-party services
|
||||
|
||||
Target gross margin:
|
||||
|
||||
- SaaS: 75-85%
|
||||
- Marketplace: 60-70%
|
||||
- E-commerce: 40-60%
|
||||
|
||||
**2. Sales & Marketing (S&M)**
|
||||
|
||||
- Sales team compensation
|
||||
- Marketing programs
|
||||
- Tools and software
|
||||
- Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage)
|
||||
|
||||
**3. Research & Development (R&D)**
|
||||
|
||||
- Engineering team
|
||||
- Product management
|
||||
- Design
|
||||
- Target: 30-40% of revenue
|
||||
|
||||
**4. General & Administrative (G&A)**
|
||||
|
||||
- Executive team
|
||||
- Finance, legal, HR
|
||||
- Office and facilities
|
||||
@@ -118,11 +134,13 @@ Target gross margin:
|
||||
Create role-by-role hiring plan:
|
||||
|
||||
**Reference team-composition-analysis skill for:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Roles by stage
|
||||
- Compensation benchmarks
|
||||
- Hiring velocity assumptions
|
||||
|
||||
**For each role:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Title and department
|
||||
- Start date (month/quarter)
|
||||
- Base salary
|
||||
@@ -130,6 +148,7 @@ Create role-by-role hiring plan:
|
||||
- Equity grant
|
||||
|
||||
**Track departmental ratios:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Engineering: 40-50% of team
|
||||
- Sales & Marketing: 25-35%
|
||||
- G&A: 10-15%
|
||||
@@ -151,6 +170,7 @@ Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Include Funding Events:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Timing of raises
|
||||
- Amount raised
|
||||
- Use of proceeds
|
||||
@@ -161,17 +181,20 @@ Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate
|
||||
Calculate monthly/quarterly:
|
||||
|
||||
**Unit Economics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- CAC (S&M spend / new customers)
|
||||
- LTV (ARPU × margin% / churn rate)
|
||||
- LTV:CAC ratio (target > 3.0)
|
||||
- CAC payback period (target < 18 months)
|
||||
|
||||
**Efficiency Metrics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Burn multiple (net burn / net new ARR) - target < 2.0
|
||||
- Magic number (net new ARR / S&M spend) - target > 0.5
|
||||
- Rule of 40 (growth% + margin%) - target > 40%
|
||||
|
||||
**Cash Metrics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Monthly burn rate
|
||||
- Runway in months
|
||||
- Cash efficiency
|
||||
@@ -181,16 +204,19 @@ Calculate monthly/quarterly:
|
||||
Build conservative, base, and optimistic projections:
|
||||
|
||||
**Conservative (P10):**
|
||||
|
||||
- New customers: -30% vs. base
|
||||
- Churn: +20% vs. base
|
||||
- Pricing: -15% vs. base
|
||||
- CAC: +25% vs. base
|
||||
|
||||
**Base (P50):**
|
||||
|
||||
- Most likely assumptions
|
||||
- Primary planning scenario
|
||||
|
||||
**Optimistic (P90):**
|
||||
|
||||
- New customers: +30% vs. base
|
||||
- Churn: -20% vs. base
|
||||
- Pricing: +15% vs. base
|
||||
@@ -201,11 +227,13 @@ Build conservative, base, and optimistic projections:
|
||||
Create comprehensive markdown report with tables:
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 1: Executive Summary**
|
||||
|
||||
- 3-5 year financial snapshot
|
||||
- Key metrics at scale
|
||||
- Funding requirements
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 2: Model Assumptions**
|
||||
|
||||
- Revenue model and pricing
|
||||
- Growth assumptions
|
||||
- Cost structure assumptions
|
||||
@@ -213,12 +241,14 @@ Create comprehensive markdown report with tables:
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 3: Revenue Projections**
|
||||
Monthly/quarterly tables showing:
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
| Month | New Customers | Total Customers | MRR | ARR | Growth % |
|
||||
|-------|---------------|-----------------|-----|-----|----------|
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 4: Cost Breakdown**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
| Department | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | % Revenue |
|
||||
|------------|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
|
||||
@@ -229,6 +259,7 @@ Monthly/quarterly tables showing:
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 5: Headcount Plan**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
| Department | Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|
||||
|------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|
|
||||
@@ -236,12 +267,14 @@ Monthly/quarterly tables showing:
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 6: Cash Flow Analysis**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
| Quarter | Revenue | Expenses | Net Burn | Cash Balance | Runway |
|
||||
|---------|---------|----------|----------|--------------|--------|
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 7: Key Metrics**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target |
|
||||
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
|
||||
@@ -251,6 +284,7 @@ Monthly/quarterly tables showing:
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 8: Scenario Analysis**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
| Scenario | Year 3 ARR | Customers | Burn | Runway |
|
||||
|----------|------------|-----------|------|--------|
|
||||
@@ -260,12 +294,14 @@ Monthly/quarterly tables showing:
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 9: Funding Requirements**
|
||||
|
||||
- Amount needed
|
||||
- Use of proceeds breakdown
|
||||
- Milestones to achieve
|
||||
- Expected valuation impact
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 10: Validation**
|
||||
|
||||
- Sanity checks performed
|
||||
- Benchmark comparisons
|
||||
- Risk factors
|
||||
@@ -274,6 +310,7 @@ Monthly/quarterly tables showing:
|
||||
### Step 10: Save Model
|
||||
|
||||
Offer to save as markdown file:
|
||||
|
||||
- Suggest filename: `financial-projections-YYYY-MM-DD.md`
|
||||
- Include note that user can convert to Excel/Sheets
|
||||
- Provide formulas for key calculations
|
||||
@@ -281,6 +318,7 @@ Offer to save as markdown file:
|
||||
## Financial Model Best Practices
|
||||
|
||||
**Do:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Use cohort-based revenue model
|
||||
- Include 3 scenarios
|
||||
- Show monthly detail (Year 1-2)
|
||||
@@ -291,6 +329,7 @@ Offer to save as markdown file:
|
||||
- Include fundraising milestones
|
||||
|
||||
**Don't:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Be overly optimistic on growth
|
||||
- Underestimate costs
|
||||
- Forget fully-loaded compensation
|
||||
@@ -302,6 +341,7 @@ Offer to save as markdown file:
|
||||
## Integration with Other Commands
|
||||
|
||||
Pairs well with:
|
||||
|
||||
- `/market-opportunity` - Use SOM for revenue ceiling
|
||||
- `/business-case` - Include projections in business case
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
description: "Generate comprehensive market opportunity analysis with TAM/SAM/SOM calculations"
|
||||
allowed-tools: ["Read", "Write", "Edit", "Glob", "Grep", "Bash", "WebSearch", "WebFetch"]
|
||||
allowed-tools:
|
||||
["Read", "Write", "Edit", "Glob", "Grep", "Bash", "WebSearch", "WebFetch"]
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
# Market Opportunity Analysis
|
||||
@@ -10,6 +11,7 @@ Generate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including To
|
||||
## What This Command Does
|
||||
|
||||
This command guides through an interactive market sizing process to:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Define the target market and customer segments
|
||||
2. Gather relevant market data
|
||||
3. Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology
|
||||
@@ -25,6 +27,7 @@ When this command is invoked, follow these steps:
|
||||
### Step 1: Gather Context
|
||||
|
||||
Ask the user for essential information:
|
||||
|
||||
- **Product/Service Description:** What problem is being solved?
|
||||
- **Target Customers:** Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography)
|
||||
- **Business Model:** How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.)
|
||||
@@ -34,6 +37,7 @@ Ask the user for essential information:
|
||||
### Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill
|
||||
|
||||
The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for:
|
||||
|
||||
- Bottom-up calculation frameworks
|
||||
- Top-down validation approaches
|
||||
- Industry-specific templates
|
||||
@@ -42,18 +46,21 @@ The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference
|
||||
### Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis
|
||||
|
||||
**For B2B/SaaS:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case)
|
||||
2. Estimate number of companies in each segment
|
||||
3. Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment
|
||||
4. Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV)
|
||||
|
||||
**For Consumer/Marketplace:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Define target user demographics
|
||||
2. Estimate total addressable users
|
||||
3. Determine average revenue per user (ARPU)
|
||||
4. Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency
|
||||
|
||||
**For Transactions/E-commerce:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Estimate total transaction volume (GMV)
|
||||
2. Determine take rate or margin
|
||||
3. Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate
|
||||
@@ -61,11 +68,13 @@ The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference
|
||||
### Step 4: Gather Market Data
|
||||
|
||||
Use available tools to research:
|
||||
|
||||
- **WebSearch:** Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data
|
||||
- **Cite all sources** with URLs and publication dates
|
||||
- **Document assumptions** clearly
|
||||
|
||||
Recommended data sources (from skill):
|
||||
|
||||
- Government data (Census, BLS)
|
||||
- Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista)
|
||||
- Public company filings (10-K reports)
|
||||
@@ -75,6 +84,7 @@ Recommended data sources (from skill):
|
||||
### Step 5: Top-Down Validation
|
||||
|
||||
Validate bottom-up calculation:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Find total market category size from research
|
||||
2. Apply geographic filters
|
||||
3. Apply segment/product filters
|
||||
@@ -85,12 +95,14 @@ If variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences.
|
||||
### Step 6: Calculate SAM
|
||||
|
||||
Apply realistic filters to narrow TAM:
|
||||
|
||||
- **Geographic:** Regions actually serviceable
|
||||
- **Product Capability:** Features needed to serve
|
||||
- **Market Readiness:** Customers ready to adopt
|
||||
- **Addressable Switching:** Can reach and convert
|
||||
|
||||
Formula:
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness %
|
||||
```
|
||||
@@ -100,10 +112,12 @@ SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness %
|
||||
Calculate realistic obtainable market share:
|
||||
|
||||
**Conservative Approach (Recommended):**
|
||||
|
||||
- Year 3: 2-3% of SAM
|
||||
- Year 5: 4-6% of SAM
|
||||
|
||||
**Consider:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Competitive intensity
|
||||
- Available resources (funding, team)
|
||||
- Go-to-market effectiveness
|
||||
@@ -114,49 +128,58 @@ Calculate realistic obtainable market share:
|
||||
Generate a comprehensive markdown report with:
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 1: Executive Summary**
|
||||
|
||||
- Market opportunity in one paragraph
|
||||
- TAM/SAM/SOM headline numbers
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 2: Market Definition**
|
||||
|
||||
- Problem being solved
|
||||
- Target customer profile
|
||||
- Geographic scope
|
||||
- Time horizon
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 3: Bottom-Up Analysis**
|
||||
|
||||
- Customer segment breakdown
|
||||
- Segment sizing with sources
|
||||
- TAM calculation with formula
|
||||
- Assumptions documented
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 4: Top-Down Validation**
|
||||
|
||||
- Industry category and size
|
||||
- Filter application
|
||||
- Validated TAM
|
||||
- Comparison to bottom-up
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 5: SAM Calculation**
|
||||
|
||||
- Filters applied with rationale
|
||||
- SAM formula and result
|
||||
- Segment-level breakdown
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 6: SOM Projection**
|
||||
|
||||
- Market share assumptions
|
||||
- Year 3 and Year 5 estimates
|
||||
- Customer count implications
|
||||
- Revenue projections
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 7: Market Growth**
|
||||
|
||||
- Industry growth rate (CAGR)
|
||||
- Key growth drivers
|
||||
- 5-year market evolution
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 8: Validation and Sanity Checks**
|
||||
|
||||
- Public company comparisons
|
||||
- Customer count validation
|
||||
- Competitive context
|
||||
|
||||
**Section 9: Investment Thesis**
|
||||
|
||||
- Market opportunity assessment
|
||||
- Key positives and risks
|
||||
- Venture-scale potential
|
||||
@@ -165,6 +188,7 @@ Generate a comprehensive markdown report with:
|
||||
### Step 9: Save Report
|
||||
|
||||
Offer to save the report as a markdown file:
|
||||
|
||||
- Suggest filename: `market-opportunity-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md`
|
||||
- Use Write tool to create file
|
||||
- Confirm file location with user
|
||||
@@ -172,6 +196,7 @@ Offer to save the report as a markdown file:
|
||||
## Tips for Best Results
|
||||
|
||||
**Do:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Start with bottom-up (most credible)
|
||||
- Always triangulate with top-down
|
||||
- Cite all data sources
|
||||
@@ -181,6 +206,7 @@ Offer to save the report as a markdown file:
|
||||
- Explain any data gaps or limitations
|
||||
|
||||
**Don't:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Rely solely on top-down
|
||||
- Cherry-pick optimistic data
|
||||
- Claim >10% SOM without strong justification
|
||||
@@ -210,6 +236,7 @@ What's your pricing model?
|
||||
## Integration with Other Commands
|
||||
|
||||
This command pairs well with:
|
||||
|
||||
- `/financial-projections` - Use SOM to build revenue model
|
||||
- `/business-case` - Include market sizing in business case
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ Analyze industry attractiveness and competitive intensity.
|
||||
### Force 1: Threat of New Entrants
|
||||
|
||||
**Barriers to Entry:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Capital requirements
|
||||
- Economies of scale
|
||||
- Switching costs
|
||||
@@ -31,6 +32,7 @@ Analyze industry attractiveness and competitive intensity.
|
||||
**Low Threat:** High barriers (e.g., regulated industries, hardware)
|
||||
|
||||
**Analysis Questions:**
|
||||
|
||||
- How easy is it for new competitors to enter?
|
||||
- What would it cost to launch a competing product?
|
||||
- Are there network effects or switching costs protecting incumbents?
|
||||
@@ -38,6 +40,7 @@ Analyze industry attractiveness and competitive intensity.
|
||||
### Force 2: Bargaining Power of Suppliers
|
||||
|
||||
**Supplier Power Factors:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Supplier concentration
|
||||
- Availability of substitutes
|
||||
- Importance to supplier
|
||||
@@ -48,6 +51,7 @@ Analyze industry attractiveness and competitive intensity.
|
||||
**Low Power:** Many alternatives, commoditized (e.g., generic services)
|
||||
|
||||
**Analysis Questions:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Who are our critical suppliers?
|
||||
- Could they raise prices or reduce quality?
|
||||
- Can we switch suppliers easily?
|
||||
@@ -55,6 +59,7 @@ Analyze industry attractiveness and competitive intensity.
|
||||
### Force 3: Bargaining Power of Buyers
|
||||
|
||||
**Buyer Power Factors:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Buyer concentration
|
||||
- Volume purchased
|
||||
- Product differentiation
|
||||
@@ -65,6 +70,7 @@ Analyze industry attractiveness and competitive intensity.
|
||||
**Low Power:** Many small customers, differentiated product (e.g., consumer subscriptions)
|
||||
|
||||
**Analysis Questions:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Can customers easily switch to competitors?
|
||||
- Do few customers generate most revenue?
|
||||
- How price-sensitive are buyers?
|
||||
@@ -72,6 +78,7 @@ Analyze industry attractiveness and competitive intensity.
|
||||
### Force 4: Threat of Substitutes
|
||||
|
||||
**Substitute Considerations:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Alternative solutions
|
||||
- Price-performance tradeoff
|
||||
- Switching costs
|
||||
@@ -81,6 +88,7 @@ Analyze industry attractiveness and competitive intensity.
|
||||
**Low Threat:** Unique solution, high switching cost (e.g., ERP systems)
|
||||
|
||||
**Analysis Questions:**
|
||||
|
||||
- What alternative ways can customers solve this problem?
|
||||
- How do substitutes compare on price and performance?
|
||||
- What's the cost to switch to a substitute?
|
||||
@@ -88,6 +96,7 @@ Analyze industry attractiveness and competitive intensity.
|
||||
### Force 5: Competitive Rivalry
|
||||
|
||||
**Rivalry Intensity Factors:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Number of competitors
|
||||
- Industry growth rate
|
||||
- Product differentiation
|
||||
@@ -98,6 +107,7 @@ Analyze industry attractiveness and competitive intensity.
|
||||
**Low Rivalry:** Few competitors, fast growth, differentiated (e.g., emerging AI tools)
|
||||
|
||||
**Analysis Questions:**
|
||||
|
||||
- How many direct competitors exist?
|
||||
- Is the market growing or stagnant?
|
||||
- How differentiated are offerings?
|
||||
@@ -107,13 +117,13 @@ Analyze industry attractiveness and competitive intensity.
|
||||
|
||||
Create a scorecard:
|
||||
|
||||
| Force | Intensity (1-5) | Impact | Key Factors |
|
||||
|-------|-----------------|--------|-------------|
|
||||
| New Entrants | 3 | Medium | Low barriers but network effects |
|
||||
| Supplier Power | 2 | Low | Many cloud providers |
|
||||
| Buyer Power | 4 | High | Enterprise customers concentrated |
|
||||
| Substitutes | 3 | Medium | Manual processes alternative |
|
||||
| Rivalry | 4 | High | 10+ direct competitors |
|
||||
| Force | Intensity (1-5) | Impact | Key Factors |
|
||||
| -------------- | --------------- | ------ | --------------------------------- |
|
||||
| New Entrants | 3 | Medium | Low barriers but network effects |
|
||||
| Supplier Power | 2 | Low | Many cloud providers |
|
||||
| Buyer Power | 4 | High | Enterprise customers concentrated |
|
||||
| Substitutes | 3 | Medium | Manual processes alternative |
|
||||
| Rivalry | 4 | High | 10+ direct competitors |
|
||||
|
||||
**Overall Assessment:** Moderate industry attractiveness with high rivalry and buyer power
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -160,6 +170,7 @@ Budget Hotel Strategy:
|
||||
Find the sweet spot: Lower cost + higher value
|
||||
|
||||
**Steps:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Map industry competing factors
|
||||
2. Identify factors to eliminate/reduce (cost savings)
|
||||
3. Identify factors to raise/create (differentiation)
|
||||
@@ -172,6 +183,7 @@ Find the sweet spot: Lower cost + higher value
|
||||
Plot competitors on 2-3 key dimensions.
|
||||
|
||||
**Example Dimensions:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Price vs. Features
|
||||
- Complexity vs. Ease of Use
|
||||
- Enterprise vs. SMB Focus
|
||||
@@ -179,12 +191,14 @@ Plot competitors on 2-3 key dimensions.
|
||||
- Generalist vs. Specialist
|
||||
|
||||
**How to Create:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Choose 2 dimensions most important to customers
|
||||
2. Plot all competitors
|
||||
3. Identify gaps (white space)
|
||||
4. Validate gap represents real customer need
|
||||
|
||||
**Example:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
High Price
|
||||
|
|
||||
@@ -238,6 +252,7 @@ Our product [statement of primary differentiation]
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Example:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
For e-commerce companies
|
||||
Who struggle with email marketing automation
|
||||
@@ -252,6 +267,7 @@ Our product uses AI to personalize at scale
|
||||
### Information Gathering
|
||||
|
||||
**Public Sources:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Company websites and blogs
|
||||
- Press releases and news
|
||||
- Job postings (hint at strategy)
|
||||
@@ -262,6 +278,7 @@ Our product uses AI to personalize at scale
|
||||
- Patent filings
|
||||
|
||||
**Direct Research:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Customer interviews
|
||||
- Win/loss analysis
|
||||
- Sales team feedback
|
||||
@@ -273,11 +290,13 @@ Our product uses AI to personalize at scale
|
||||
For each key competitor, document:
|
||||
|
||||
**Company Overview:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Founded, HQ, funding, size
|
||||
- Leadership team
|
||||
- Company stage and trajectory
|
||||
|
||||
**Product:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Core features
|
||||
- Target customers
|
||||
- Pricing and packaging
|
||||
@@ -285,22 +304,26 @@ For each key competitor, document:
|
||||
- Recent launches
|
||||
|
||||
**Go-to-Market:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Sales model (self-serve, sales-led)
|
||||
- Marketing strategy
|
||||
- Distribution channels
|
||||
- Partnerships
|
||||
|
||||
**Strengths:**
|
||||
|
||||
- What they do better than anyone
|
||||
- Key competitive advantages
|
||||
- Market position
|
||||
|
||||
**Weaknesses:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Gaps in product
|
||||
- Customer complaints
|
||||
- Operational challenges
|
||||
|
||||
**Strategy:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Stated direction
|
||||
- Inferred priorities
|
||||
- Likely next moves
|
||||
@@ -310,18 +333,21 @@ For each key competitor, document:
|
||||
### Price Positioning
|
||||
|
||||
**Premium (Top 25%):**
|
||||
|
||||
- Superior product/service
|
||||
- Strong brand
|
||||
- High-touch sales
|
||||
- Enterprise focus
|
||||
|
||||
**Mid-Market (Middle 50%):**
|
||||
|
||||
- Balanced value
|
||||
- Standard features
|
||||
- Mixed sales model
|
||||
- Broad market
|
||||
|
||||
**Value (Bottom 25%):**
|
||||
|
||||
- Basic functionality
|
||||
- Self-service
|
||||
- Cost leadership
|
||||
@@ -329,13 +355,14 @@ For each key competitor, document:
|
||||
|
||||
### Pricing Comparison Matrix
|
||||
|
||||
| Competitor | Entry Price | Mid Tier | Enterprise | Model |
|
||||
|-----------|-------------|----------|------------|-------|
|
||||
| Competitor A | $29/mo | $99/mo | Custom | Subscription |
|
||||
| Competitor B | $49/mo | $199/mo | $499/mo | Subscription |
|
||||
| Us | $39/mo | $129/mo | Custom | Subscription |
|
||||
| Competitor | Entry Price | Mid Tier | Enterprise | Model |
|
||||
| ------------ | ----------- | -------- | ---------- | ------------ |
|
||||
| Competitor A | $29/mo | $99/mo | Custom | Subscription |
|
||||
| Competitor B | $49/mo | $199/mo | $499/mo | Subscription |
|
||||
| Us | $39/mo | $129/mo | Custom | Subscription |
|
||||
|
||||
**Analysis:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Are we priced competitively?
|
||||
- What does our pricing signal?
|
||||
- Are there gaps in our packaging?
|
||||
@@ -345,21 +372,25 @@ For each key competitor, document:
|
||||
### Market Entry Strategies
|
||||
|
||||
**Direct Competition:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Head-to-head against established players
|
||||
- Requires differentiation and resources
|
||||
- Example: Better features at lower price
|
||||
|
||||
**Niche Focus:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Target underserved segment
|
||||
- Become specialist vs. generalist
|
||||
- Example: "Salesforce for real estate"
|
||||
|
||||
**Disruptive Innovation:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Target non-consumers or low end
|
||||
- Improve over time to move upmarket
|
||||
- Example: Freemium model disrupting enterprise
|
||||
|
||||
**Platform Play:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Build ecosystem and network effects
|
||||
- Aggregate complementary services
|
||||
- Example: Marketplace or API platform
|
||||
@@ -367,6 +398,7 @@ For each key competitor, document:
|
||||
### Beachhead Market
|
||||
|
||||
**Characteristics of Good Beachhead:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Specific, reachable segment
|
||||
- Acute pain you solve well
|
||||
- Limited competition
|
||||
@@ -381,32 +413,39 @@ Instead of "project management software", target "project management for constru
|
||||
### Sustainable Advantages
|
||||
|
||||
**Network Effects:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Value increases with users
|
||||
- Example: Slack, marketplaces
|
||||
|
||||
**Switching Costs:**
|
||||
|
||||
- High cost to change
|
||||
- Example: CRM systems with data
|
||||
|
||||
**Economies of Scale:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Unit costs decrease with volume
|
||||
- Example: Cloud infrastructure
|
||||
|
||||
**Brand:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Trust and reputation
|
||||
- Example: Security software
|
||||
|
||||
**Proprietary Technology:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Patents or trade secrets
|
||||
- Example: Algorithms, data
|
||||
|
||||
**Regulatory:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Licenses or approvals
|
||||
- Example: Fintech, healthcare
|
||||
|
||||
### Testing Your Advantage
|
||||
|
||||
Ask:
|
||||
|
||||
- Can competitors copy this in < 2 years?
|
||||
- Does this matter to customers?
|
||||
- Do we execute this better than anyone?
|
||||
@@ -419,17 +458,20 @@ If "no" to any, it's not a sustainable advantage.
|
||||
### What to Track
|
||||
|
||||
**Product Changes:**
|
||||
|
||||
- New features
|
||||
- Pricing changes
|
||||
- Packaging adjustments
|
||||
|
||||
**Market Signals:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Funding announcements
|
||||
- Key hires (especially leadership)
|
||||
- Customer wins/losses
|
||||
- Partnerships
|
||||
|
||||
**Performance Metrics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Revenue (if public or disclosed)
|
||||
- Customer count
|
||||
- Growth rate
|
||||
@@ -438,28 +480,34 @@ If "no" to any, it's not a sustainable advantage.
|
||||
### Monitoring Cadence
|
||||
|
||||
**Weekly:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Product release notes
|
||||
- News mentions
|
||||
|
||||
**Monthly:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Win/loss analysis review
|
||||
- Positioning map updates
|
||||
|
||||
**Quarterly:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Deep competitive review
|
||||
- Strategy adjustment
|
||||
|
||||
**Annually:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Major strategy reassessment
|
||||
- Market trends analysis
|
||||
|
||||
## Additional Resources
|
||||
|
||||
### Reference Files
|
||||
|
||||
- **`references/frameworks-deep-dive.md`** - Detailed application of each framework with worksheets
|
||||
- **`references/intel-sources.md`** - Comprehensive list of competitive intelligence sources
|
||||
|
||||
### Example Files
|
||||
|
||||
- **`examples/competitor-analysis.md`** - Complete competitive analysis for a SaaS startup
|
||||
- **`examples/positioning-workshop.md`** - Step-by-step positioning development process
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -17,18 +17,21 @@ Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and bus
|
||||
### The Three-Tier Market Framework
|
||||
|
||||
**TAM (Total Addressable Market)**
|
||||
|
||||
- Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share
|
||||
- Defines the universe of potential customers
|
||||
- Used for long-term vision and market validation
|
||||
- Example: All email marketing software revenue globally
|
||||
|
||||
**SAM (Serviceable Available Market)**
|
||||
|
||||
- Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service
|
||||
- Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints
|
||||
- Represents realistic addressable opportunity
|
||||
- Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America
|
||||
|
||||
**SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)**
|
||||
|
||||
- Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years
|
||||
- Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics
|
||||
- Used for financial projections and fundraising
|
||||
@@ -37,18 +40,21 @@ Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and bus
|
||||
### When to Use Each Methodology
|
||||
|
||||
**Top-Down Analysis**
|
||||
|
||||
- Use when established market research exists
|
||||
- Best for mature, well-defined markets
|
||||
- Validates market existence and growth
|
||||
- Starts with industry reports and narrows down
|
||||
|
||||
**Bottom-Up Analysis**
|
||||
|
||||
- Use when targeting specific customer segments
|
||||
- Best for new or niche markets
|
||||
- Most credible for investors
|
||||
- Builds from customer data and pricing
|
||||
|
||||
**Value Theory**
|
||||
|
||||
- Use when creating new market categories
|
||||
- Best for disruptive innovations
|
||||
- Estimates based on value creation
|
||||
@@ -61,12 +67,14 @@ Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and bus
|
||||
Start with total market size and narrow to addressable segments.
|
||||
|
||||
**Process:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Identify total market category from research reports
|
||||
2. Apply geographic filters (target regions)
|
||||
3. Apply segment filters (target industries/customers)
|
||||
4. Calculate competitive positioning adjustments
|
||||
|
||||
**Formula:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
TAM = Total Market Category Size
|
||||
SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Segment %
|
||||
@@ -84,12 +92,14 @@ SOM = SAM × Realistic Capture Rate (2-5%)
|
||||
Build market size from customer segment calculations.
|
||||
|
||||
**Process:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Define target customer segments
|
||||
2. Estimate number of potential customers per segment
|
||||
3. Determine average revenue per customer
|
||||
4. Calculate realistic penetration rates
|
||||
|
||||
**Formula:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
TAM = Σ (Segment Size × Annual Revenue per Customer)
|
||||
SAM = TAM × (Segments You Can Serve / Total Segments)
|
||||
@@ -107,6 +117,7 @@ SOM = SAM × Realistic Penetration Rate (Year 3-5)
|
||||
Calculate based on value created and willingness to pay.
|
||||
|
||||
**Process:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Identify problem being solved
|
||||
2. Quantify current cost of problem (time, money, inefficiency)
|
||||
3. Calculate value of solution (savings, gains, efficiency)
|
||||
@@ -114,6 +125,7 @@ Calculate based on value created and willingness to pay.
|
||||
5. Multiply by addressable customer base
|
||||
|
||||
**Formula:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Value per Customer = Problem Cost × % Solved by Solution
|
||||
Price per Customer = Value × Willingness to Pay % (10-30%)
|
||||
@@ -135,6 +147,7 @@ SOM = SAM × Realistic Adoption Rate
|
||||
Clearly specify what market is being measured.
|
||||
|
||||
**Questions to answer:**
|
||||
|
||||
- What problem is being solved?
|
||||
- Who are the target customers?
|
||||
- What's the product/service category?
|
||||
@@ -142,6 +155,7 @@ Clearly specify what market is being measured.
|
||||
- What's the time horizon?
|
||||
|
||||
**Example:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Problem: E-commerce companies struggle with email marketing automation
|
||||
- Customers: E-commerce stores with >$1M annual revenue
|
||||
- Category: AI-powered email marketing software
|
||||
@@ -153,12 +167,14 @@ Clearly specify what market is being measured.
|
||||
Identify credible data for calculations.
|
||||
|
||||
**Top-Down Sources:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Industry research reports (Gartner, Forrester, IDC)
|
||||
- Government statistics (Census, BLS, trade associations)
|
||||
- Public company filings and earnings
|
||||
- Market research firms (Statista, CB Insights, PitchBook)
|
||||
|
||||
**Bottom-Up Sources:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Customer interviews and surveys
|
||||
- Sales data and CRM records
|
||||
- Industry databases (LinkedIn, ZoomInfo, Crunchbase)
|
||||
@@ -166,6 +182,7 @@ Identify credible data for calculations.
|
||||
- Academic research
|
||||
|
||||
**Value Theory Sources:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Customer problem quantification
|
||||
- Time/cost studies
|
||||
- ROI case studies
|
||||
@@ -176,18 +193,21 @@ Identify credible data for calculations.
|
||||
Apply chosen methodology to determine total market.
|
||||
|
||||
**For Top-Down:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Find total category size from research
|
||||
2. Document data source and year
|
||||
3. Apply growth rate if needed
|
||||
4. Validate with multiple sources
|
||||
|
||||
**For Bottom-Up:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Count total potential customers
|
||||
2. Calculate average annual revenue per customer
|
||||
3. Multiply to get TAM
|
||||
4. Break down by segment
|
||||
|
||||
**For Value Theory:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Quantify total addressable customer base
|
||||
2. Calculate value per customer
|
||||
3. Estimate pricing based on value
|
||||
@@ -198,6 +218,7 @@ Apply chosen methodology to determine total market.
|
||||
Narrow TAM to serviceable addressable market.
|
||||
|
||||
**Apply Filters:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Geographic constraints (regions you can serve)
|
||||
- Product limitations (features you currently have)
|
||||
- Customer requirements (size, industry, use case)
|
||||
@@ -205,11 +226,13 @@ Narrow TAM to serviceable addressable market.
|
||||
- Regulatory or compliance restrictions
|
||||
|
||||
**Formula:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
SAM = TAM × (% matching all filters)
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Example:**
|
||||
|
||||
- TAM: $10B global email marketing
|
||||
- Geographic filter: 40% (North America)
|
||||
- Product filter: 30% (e-commerce focus)
|
||||
@@ -221,6 +244,7 @@ SAM = TAM × (% matching all filters)
|
||||
Determine realistic obtainable market share.
|
||||
|
||||
**Consider:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Current market share of competitors
|
||||
- Typical market share for new entrants (2-5%)
|
||||
- Resources available (funding, team, time)
|
||||
@@ -229,12 +253,14 @@ Determine realistic obtainable market share.
|
||||
- Time to achieve (3-5 years typically)
|
||||
|
||||
**Conservative Approach:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
SOM (Year 3) = SAM × 2%
|
||||
SOM (Year 5) = SAM × 5%
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Example:**
|
||||
|
||||
- SAM: $720M
|
||||
- Year 3 SOM: $720M × 2% = $14.4M
|
||||
- Year 5 SOM: $720M × 5% = $36M
|
||||
@@ -244,6 +270,7 @@ SOM (Year 5) = SAM × 5%
|
||||
Cross-check using multiple methods.
|
||||
|
||||
**Validation Techniques:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Compare top-down and bottom-up results (should be within 30%)
|
||||
2. Check against public company revenues in space
|
||||
3. Validate customer count assumptions
|
||||
@@ -252,6 +279,7 @@ Cross-check using multiple methods.
|
||||
6. Compare to similar market categories
|
||||
|
||||
**Red Flags:**
|
||||
|
||||
- TAM that's too small (< $1B for VC-backed startups)
|
||||
- TAM that's too large (unsupported by data)
|
||||
- SOM that's too aggressive (> 10% in 5 years for new entrant)
|
||||
@@ -262,12 +290,14 @@ Cross-check using multiple methods.
|
||||
### SaaS Markets
|
||||
|
||||
**Key Metrics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Number of potential businesses in target segment
|
||||
- Average contract value (ACV)
|
||||
- Typical market penetration rates
|
||||
- Expansion revenue potential
|
||||
|
||||
**TAM Calculation:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
TAM = Total Target Companies × Average ACV × (1 + Expansion Rate)
|
||||
```
|
||||
@@ -275,11 +305,13 @@ TAM = Total Target Companies × Average ACV × (1 + Expansion Rate)
|
||||
### Marketplace Markets
|
||||
|
||||
**Key Metrics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of category
|
||||
- Take rate (% of GMV you capture)
|
||||
- Total transactions or users
|
||||
|
||||
**TAM Calculation:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
TAM = Total Category GMV × Expected Take Rate
|
||||
```
|
||||
@@ -287,11 +319,13 @@ TAM = Total Category GMV × Expected Take Rate
|
||||
### Consumer Markets
|
||||
|
||||
**Key Metrics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Total addressable users/households
|
||||
- Average revenue per user (ARPU)
|
||||
- Engagement frequency
|
||||
|
||||
**TAM Calculation:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
TAM = Total Users × ARPU × Purchase Frequency per Year
|
||||
```
|
||||
@@ -299,11 +333,13 @@ TAM = Total Users × ARPU × Purchase Frequency per Year
|
||||
### B2B Services
|
||||
|
||||
**Key Metrics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Number of target companies by size/industry
|
||||
- Average project value or retainer
|
||||
- Typical buying frequency
|
||||
|
||||
**TAM Calculation:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
TAM = Total Target Companies × Average Deal Size × Deals per Year
|
||||
```
|
||||
@@ -313,6 +349,7 @@ TAM = Total Target Companies × Average Deal Size × Deals per Year
|
||||
### For Investors
|
||||
|
||||
**Structure:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Market definition and problem scope
|
||||
2. TAM/SAM/SOM with methodology
|
||||
3. Data sources and assumptions
|
||||
@@ -320,6 +357,7 @@ TAM = Total Target Companies × Average Deal Size × Deals per Year
|
||||
5. Competitive landscape context
|
||||
|
||||
**Key Points:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Lead with bottom-up calculation (most credible)
|
||||
- Show triangulation with top-down
|
||||
- Explain conservative assumptions
|
||||
@@ -329,6 +367,7 @@ TAM = Total Target Companies × Average Deal Size × Deals per Year
|
||||
### For Strategy
|
||||
|
||||
**Structure:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Addressable customer segments
|
||||
2. Prioritization by opportunity size
|
||||
3. Entry strategy by segment
|
||||
@@ -336,6 +375,7 @@ TAM = Total Target Companies × Average Deal Size × Deals per Year
|
||||
5. Resource requirements
|
||||
|
||||
**Key Points:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Focus on SAM and SOM
|
||||
- Show segment-level detail
|
||||
- Connect to go-to-market plan
|
||||
@@ -345,26 +385,31 @@ TAM = Total Target Companies × Average Deal Size × Deals per Year
|
||||
## Common Mistakes to Avoid
|
||||
|
||||
**Mistake 1: Confusing TAM with SAM**
|
||||
|
||||
- Don't claim entire market as addressable
|
||||
- Apply realistic product/geographic constraints
|
||||
- Be honest about serviceable market
|
||||
|
||||
**Mistake 2: Overly Aggressive SOM**
|
||||
|
||||
- New entrants rarely capture > 5% in 5 years
|
||||
- Account for competition and resources
|
||||
- Show realistic ramp timeline
|
||||
|
||||
**Mistake 3: Using Only Top-Down**
|
||||
|
||||
- Investors prefer bottom-up validation
|
||||
- Top-down alone lacks credibility
|
||||
- Always triangulate with multiple methods
|
||||
|
||||
**Mistake 4: Cherry-Picking Data**
|
||||
|
||||
- Use consistent, recent data sources
|
||||
- Don't mix methodologies inappropriately
|
||||
- Document all assumptions clearly
|
||||
|
||||
**Mistake 5: Ignoring Market Dynamics**
|
||||
|
||||
- Account for market growth/decline
|
||||
- Consider competitive intensity
|
||||
- Factor in switching costs and barriers
|
||||
@@ -374,6 +419,7 @@ TAM = Total Target Companies × Average Deal Size × Deals per Year
|
||||
### Reference Files
|
||||
|
||||
For detailed methodologies and frameworks:
|
||||
|
||||
- **`references/methodology-deep-dive.md`** - Comprehensive guide to each methodology with step-by-step worksheets
|
||||
- **`references/data-sources.md`** - Curated list of market research sources, databases, and tools
|
||||
- **`references/industry-templates.md`** - Specific templates for SaaS, marketplace, consumer, B2B, and fintech markets
|
||||
@@ -381,6 +427,7 @@ For detailed methodologies and frameworks:
|
||||
### Example Files
|
||||
|
||||
Working examples with complete calculations:
|
||||
|
||||
- **`examples/saas-market-sizing.md`** - Complete TAM/SAM/SOM for a B2B SaaS product
|
||||
- **`examples/marketplace-sizing.md`** - Marketplace platform market opportunity calculation
|
||||
- **`examples/value-theory-example.md`** - Value-based market sizing for disruptive innovation
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ Complete TAM/SAM/SOM calculation for a B2B SaaS startup using bottom-up and top-
|
||||
### Step 1: Define Target Customer Segments
|
||||
|
||||
**Segment Criteria:**
|
||||
|
||||
- E-commerce companies (D2C and marketplace sellers)
|
||||
- $1M+ in annual revenue
|
||||
- North America based
|
||||
@@ -22,13 +23,14 @@ Complete TAM/SAM/SOM calculation for a B2B SaaS startup using bottom-up and top-
|
||||
|
||||
**Segment Breakdown:**
|
||||
|
||||
| Segment | Annual Revenue | Count | ACV | Priority |
|
||||
|---------|---------------|-------|-----|----------|
|
||||
| Small E-commerce | $1M-$5M | 85,000 | $3,600 | High |
|
||||
| Mid-Market E-commerce | $5M-$50M | 18,000 | $9,600 | High |
|
||||
| Enterprise E-commerce | $50M+ | 2,500 | $24,000 | Medium |
|
||||
| Segment | Annual Revenue | Count | ACV | Priority |
|
||||
| --------------------- | -------------- | ------ | ------- | -------- |
|
||||
| Small E-commerce | $1M-$5M | 85,000 | $3,600 | High |
|
||||
| Mid-Market E-commerce | $5M-$50M | 18,000 | $9,600 | High |
|
||||
| Enterprise E-commerce | $50M+ | 2,500 | $24,000 | Medium |
|
||||
|
||||
**Data Sources:**
|
||||
|
||||
- U.S. Census Bureau: E-commerce business counts
|
||||
- Shopify, BigCommerce, WooCommerce: Published merchant counts
|
||||
- Statista: E-commerce market statistics
|
||||
@@ -37,11 +39,13 @@ Complete TAM/SAM/SOM calculation for a B2B SaaS startup using bottom-up and top-
|
||||
### Step 2: Calculate TAM (Total Addressable Market)
|
||||
|
||||
**Formula:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
TAM = Σ (Segment Count × Annual Contract Value)
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Calculation:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Small E-commerce: 85,000 × $3,600 = $306M
|
||||
Mid-Market: 18,000 × $9,600 = $173M
|
||||
@@ -51,6 +55,7 @@ TAM (North America): $539M
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Global Expansion Multiplier:**
|
||||
|
||||
- North America = 35% of global e-commerce market
|
||||
- Global TAM = $539M / 0.35 = $1.54B
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -80,6 +85,7 @@ TAM (North America): $539M
|
||||
**SAM = $169M**
|
||||
|
||||
**SAM Breakdown by Segment:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Small E-commerce: $306M × 0.45 × 0.70 = $96M (57%)
|
||||
Mid-Market: $173M × 0.45 × 0.70 = $54M (32%)
|
||||
@@ -91,22 +97,26 @@ Enterprise: $60M × 0.45 × 0.70 = $19M (11%)
|
||||
**Market Share Assumptions:**
|
||||
|
||||
**Year 3 Target: 2.5% of SAM**
|
||||
|
||||
- Typical new entrant market share
|
||||
- Requires strong product-market fit
|
||||
- Assumes $10M in funding for GTM
|
||||
|
||||
**Year 5 Target: 5% of SAM**
|
||||
|
||||
- Achievable with scale and brand
|
||||
- Requires effective sales and marketing
|
||||
- Assumes additional funding for growth
|
||||
|
||||
**Calculation:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
SOM (Year 3) = $169M × 2.5% = $4.2M ARR
|
||||
SOM (Year 5) = $169M × 5.0% = $8.5M ARR
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**SOM by Segment (Year 5):**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Small E-commerce: $96M × 5% = $4.8M ARR (565 customers)
|
||||
Mid-Market: $54M × 5% = $2.7M ARR (281 customers)
|
||||
@@ -117,12 +127,12 @@ Total: $8.5M ARR (888 customers)
|
||||
|
||||
### Bottom-Up Summary
|
||||
|
||||
| Metric | North America | Notes |
|
||||
|--------|---------------|-------|
|
||||
| **TAM** | $539M | All e-commerce $1M+ revenue |
|
||||
| **SAM** | $169M | AI-ready, addressable switching market |
|
||||
| **SOM (Year 3)** | $4.2M | 2.5% market share, 495 customers |
|
||||
| **SOM (Year 5)** | $8.5M | 5% market share, 888 customers |
|
||||
| Metric | North America | Notes |
|
||||
| ---------------- | ------------- | -------------------------------------- |
|
||||
| **TAM** | $539M | All e-commerce $1M+ revenue |
|
||||
| **SAM** | $169M | AI-ready, addressable switching market |
|
||||
| **SOM (Year 3)** | $4.2M | 2.5% market share, 495 customers |
|
||||
| **SOM (Year 5)** | $8.5M | 5% market share, 888 customers |
|
||||
|
||||
## Methodology 2: Top-Down Analysis (Validation)
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -132,6 +142,7 @@ Total: $8.5M ARR (888 customers)
|
||||
**Source:** Gartner Market Share Report (2024)
|
||||
|
||||
**Global Email Marketing Software Market:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Market Size: $7.5B (2024)
|
||||
- Growth Rate: 12% CAGR
|
||||
- Geography: Worldwide
|
||||
@@ -141,42 +152,47 @@ Total: $8.5M ARR (888 customers)
|
||||
### Step 2: Apply Geographic Filter
|
||||
|
||||
**North America Market Share:**
|
||||
|
||||
- North America = 40% of global software spending
|
||||
- Email Marketing NA = $7.5B × 0.40 = $3.0B
|
||||
|
||||
### Step 3: Apply Segment Filters
|
||||
|
||||
**E-Commerce Focus:**
|
||||
|
||||
- E-commerce email marketing = 25% of total email marketing
|
||||
- E-commerce segment = $3.0B × 0.25 = $750M
|
||||
|
||||
**$1M+ Revenue Filter:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Companies with $1M+ revenue = 65% of e-commerce market
|
||||
- TAM = $750M × 0.65 = $488M
|
||||
|
||||
**AI-Powered Subset:**
|
||||
|
||||
- AI-powered email marketing = 35% of market (growing rapidly)
|
||||
- SAM = $488M × 0.35 = $171M
|
||||
|
||||
### Top-Down Summary
|
||||
|
||||
| Metric | Amount | Calculation |
|
||||
|--------|--------|-------------|
|
||||
| **TAM** | $488M | NA e-commerce email marketing $1M+ |
|
||||
| **SAM** | $171M | AI-powered subset |
|
||||
| Metric | Amount | Calculation |
|
||||
| ------- | ------ | ---------------------------------- |
|
||||
| **TAM** | $488M | NA e-commerce email marketing $1M+ |
|
||||
| **SAM** | $171M | AI-powered subset |
|
||||
|
||||
## Triangulation and Validation
|
||||
|
||||
### Comparing Methodologies
|
||||
|
||||
| Metric | Bottom-Up | Top-Down | Variance |
|
||||
|--------|-----------|----------|----------|
|
||||
| **TAM** | $539M | $488M | +10% |
|
||||
| **SAM** | $169M | $171M | -1% |
|
||||
| Metric | Bottom-Up | Top-Down | Variance |
|
||||
| ------- | --------- | -------- | -------- |
|
||||
| **TAM** | $539M | $488M | +10% |
|
||||
| **SAM** | $169M | $171M | -1% |
|
||||
|
||||
**Validation Result:** ✅ Excellent alignment (< 2% variance on SAM)
|
||||
|
||||
**Why alignment matters:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Bottom-up and top-down within 10% gives high confidence
|
||||
- SAM alignment of 1% is exceptional
|
||||
- Use bottom-up as primary (more granular)
|
||||
@@ -185,12 +201,14 @@ Total: $8.5M ARR (888 customers)
|
||||
### Public Company Validation
|
||||
|
||||
**Klaviyo (Public, KVYO):**
|
||||
|
||||
- 2024 Revenue: ~$700M
|
||||
- Focus: E-commerce email/SMS marketing
|
||||
- Market Share: ~46% of our SAM
|
||||
- Validates large e-commerce email market exists
|
||||
|
||||
**Mailchimp (Intuit-owned):**
|
||||
|
||||
- 2024 Revenue: ~$800M (estimated)
|
||||
- Broader focus, includes SMBs
|
||||
- Significant e-commerce customer base
|
||||
@@ -219,25 +237,28 @@ Total: $8.5M ARR (888 customers)
|
||||
### Market Growth Assumptions
|
||||
|
||||
**Email Marketing Market CAGR: 12%**
|
||||
|
||||
- Source: Gartner market forecast
|
||||
- Drivers: E-commerce growth, marketing automation adoption
|
||||
|
||||
**AI Subset Growth: 25% CAGR**
|
||||
|
||||
- Higher than overall market
|
||||
- AI adoption accelerating in marketing
|
||||
- More companies seeking AI-powered tools
|
||||
|
||||
### SAM Evolution (5-Year Forecast)
|
||||
|
||||
| Year | SAM | Growth | Notes |
|
||||
|------|-----|--------|-------|
|
||||
| 2026 | $169M | - | Starting point |
|
||||
| 2027 | $211M | +25% | AI adoption accelerating |
|
||||
| 2028 | $264M | +25% | Mainstream adoption begins |
|
||||
| 2029 | $330M | +25% | AI becomes table stakes |
|
||||
| 2030 | $413M | +25% | Market maturity |
|
||||
| Year | SAM | Growth | Notes |
|
||||
| ---- | ----- | ------ | -------------------------- |
|
||||
| 2026 | $169M | - | Starting point |
|
||||
| 2027 | $211M | +25% | AI adoption accelerating |
|
||||
| 2028 | $264M | +25% | Mainstream adoption begins |
|
||||
| 2029 | $330M | +25% | AI becomes table stakes |
|
||||
| 2030 | $413M | +25% | Market maturity |
|
||||
|
||||
**Growing SAM Impact:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Year 5 SOM of 5% applied to $413M SAM = $20.6M potential
|
||||
- Provides headroom for growth
|
||||
- Supports expansion beyond initial 5% share
|
||||
@@ -247,17 +268,20 @@ Total: $8.5M ARR (888 customers)
|
||||
### Market Share Distribution
|
||||
|
||||
**Current Leaders:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Klaviyo: ~46% share
|
||||
- Mailchimp: ~35% share
|
||||
- Others: ~19% share (fragmented)
|
||||
|
||||
**Market Dynamics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Two dominant players
|
||||
- Long tail of smaller competitors
|
||||
- Opportunity in AI-differentiated positioning
|
||||
- Typical SaaS market consolidation pattern
|
||||
|
||||
**Implications for SOM:**
|
||||
|
||||
- 5% share requires strong differentiation
|
||||
- AI capabilities could drive 10-15% share long-term
|
||||
- Acquisition potential if unable to reach scale
|
||||
@@ -324,22 +348,26 @@ Demonstrates large, proven market
|
||||
## Key Takeaways
|
||||
|
||||
**Market Sizing Results:**
|
||||
|
||||
- TAM: $1.5B globally, $539M North America
|
||||
- SAM: $169M (North America, AI-ready customers)
|
||||
- SOM: $4.2M (Year 3), $8.5M (Year 5)
|
||||
|
||||
**Methodology:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Bottom-up primary (most granular and credible)
|
||||
- Top-down validation (<2% variance on SAM)
|
||||
- Public company validation (Klaviyo, Mailchimp)
|
||||
|
||||
**Investment Implications:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Market supports venture-scale outcome
|
||||
- 5% market share achievable with strong execution
|
||||
- Growing market (25% CAGR) provides tailwinds
|
||||
- Competitive but differentiated positioning possible
|
||||
|
||||
**Next Steps:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Validate pricing assumptions with customer research
|
||||
2. Refine segment prioritization based on GTM capacity
|
||||
3. Update SAM annually as market evolves
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -7,24 +7,28 @@ Curated list of credible sources for market research and sizing analysis.
|
||||
### Premium Research Firms
|
||||
|
||||
**Gartner** (https://www.gartner.com)
|
||||
|
||||
- Technology market forecasts and sizing
|
||||
- Magic Quadrants for competitive positioning
|
||||
- Typical cost: $5K-$50K per report
|
||||
- Best for: Enterprise software, IT services, emerging tech
|
||||
|
||||
**Forrester** (https://www.forrester.com)
|
||||
|
||||
- Business technology and digital transformation
|
||||
- Wave evaluations for vendor comparison
|
||||
- Typical cost: $3K-$30K per report
|
||||
- Best for: Marketing tech, customer experience, B2B
|
||||
|
||||
**IDC** (https://www.idc.com)
|
||||
|
||||
- IT market intelligence and sizing
|
||||
- Detailed segment breakdowns
|
||||
- Typical cost: $4K-$40K per report
|
||||
- Best for: Hardware, software, IT services
|
||||
|
||||
**McKinsey** (https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights)
|
||||
|
||||
- Free insights and reports
|
||||
- Strategic industry analysis
|
||||
- Best for: Industry trends, macroeconomic context
|
||||
@@ -32,21 +36,25 @@ Curated list of credible sources for market research and sizing analysis.
|
||||
### Accessible Research
|
||||
|
||||
**Statista** (https://www.statista.com)
|
||||
|
||||
- Cost: $39/month individual, $199/month business
|
||||
- Coverage: 80,000+ topics across industries
|
||||
- Best for: Quick market size estimates, charts, trends
|
||||
|
||||
**CB Insights** (https://www.cbinsights.com)
|
||||
|
||||
- Cost: Custom pricing (typically $10K+/year)
|
||||
- Coverage: Venture capital, startup markets
|
||||
- Best for: Emerging markets, competitive intelligence
|
||||
|
||||
**PitchBook** (https://pitchbook.com)
|
||||
|
||||
- Cost: Institutional pricing
|
||||
- Coverage: Private company valuations, M&A, VC
|
||||
- Best for: Startup valuations, funding trends
|
||||
|
||||
**Grand View Research** (https://www.grandviewresearch.com)
|
||||
|
||||
- Cost: $2K-$5K per report
|
||||
- Coverage: B2C and emerging markets
|
||||
- Best for: Consumer markets, healthcare, cleantech
|
||||
@@ -56,21 +64,25 @@ Curated list of credible sources for market research and sizing analysis.
|
||||
### U.S. Government Sources
|
||||
|
||||
**U.S. Census Bureau** (https://www.census.gov)
|
||||
|
||||
- Free, authoritative demographic data
|
||||
- Economic census every 5 years
|
||||
- Best for: Business counts, demographics, spending
|
||||
|
||||
**Bureau of Labor Statistics** (https://www.bls.gov)
|
||||
|
||||
- Free employment and economic data
|
||||
- Industry-specific statistics
|
||||
- Best for: Employment trends, wages, productivity
|
||||
|
||||
**SEC EDGAR** (https://www.sec.gov/edgar)
|
||||
|
||||
- Free public company filings
|
||||
- 10-K, 10-Q reports with segment revenue
|
||||
- Best for: Validating market size with public company data
|
||||
|
||||
**Data.gov** (https://www.data.gov)
|
||||
|
||||
- Free government datasets
|
||||
- Aggregates across agencies
|
||||
- Best for: Specialized industry data
|
||||
@@ -78,14 +90,17 @@ Curated list of credible sources for market research and sizing analysis.
|
||||
### International Sources
|
||||
|
||||
**OECD** (https://data.oecd.org)
|
||||
|
||||
- Free international economic data
|
||||
- Best for: Cross-country comparisons
|
||||
|
||||
**World Bank** (https://data.worldbank.org)
|
||||
|
||||
- Free global development data
|
||||
- Best for: Emerging markets, macro trends
|
||||
|
||||
**Eurostat** (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat)
|
||||
|
||||
- Free European Union statistics
|
||||
- Best for: European market sizing
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -94,22 +109,27 @@ Curated list of credible sources for market research and sizing analysis.
|
||||
Industry associations often publish market research:
|
||||
|
||||
**Software & SaaS**
|
||||
|
||||
- Software & Information Industry Association (SIIA)
|
||||
- Cloud Security Alliance (CSA)
|
||||
|
||||
**E-commerce & Retail**
|
||||
|
||||
- National Retail Federation (NRF)
|
||||
- Digital Commerce 360
|
||||
|
||||
**Financial Services**
|
||||
|
||||
- American Bankers Association (ABA)
|
||||
- Financial Technology Association (FTA)
|
||||
|
||||
**Healthcare**
|
||||
|
||||
- Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society (HIMSS)
|
||||
- American Hospital Association (AHA)
|
||||
|
||||
**Manufacturing**
|
||||
|
||||
- National Association of Manufacturers (NAM)
|
||||
- Industrial Internet Consortium (IIC)
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -118,21 +138,25 @@ Industry associations often publish market research:
|
||||
### B2B Databases
|
||||
|
||||
**LinkedIn Sales Navigator** ($99/month)
|
||||
|
||||
- Company and employee counts
|
||||
- Industry filters
|
||||
- Best for: B2B customer counting
|
||||
|
||||
**ZoomInfo** (Custom pricing)
|
||||
|
||||
- Company databases with firmographics
|
||||
- Contact data
|
||||
- Best for: B2B TAM calculations
|
||||
|
||||
**Crunchbase** ($29-$99/month)
|
||||
|
||||
- Startup company data
|
||||
- Funding and employee information
|
||||
- Best for: Tech startup markets
|
||||
|
||||
**BuiltWith** ($295-$995/month)
|
||||
|
||||
- Technology usage data
|
||||
- Website analytics
|
||||
- Best for: Technology adoption sizing
|
||||
@@ -140,14 +164,17 @@ Industry associations often publish market research:
|
||||
### Consumer Data
|
||||
|
||||
**Euromonitor** (Custom pricing)
|
||||
|
||||
- Consumer market research
|
||||
- Best for: B2C product markets
|
||||
|
||||
**Nielsen** (Custom pricing)
|
||||
|
||||
- Consumer behavior and media
|
||||
- Best for: CPG, retail, media markets
|
||||
|
||||
**Mintel** (Custom pricing)
|
||||
|
||||
- Consumer trends and insights
|
||||
- Best for: B2C products and services
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -156,11 +183,13 @@ Industry associations often publish market research:
|
||||
### Market Research Aggregators
|
||||
|
||||
**Research and Markets** (https://www.researchandmarkets.com)
|
||||
|
||||
- Aggregates reports from 100+ publishers
|
||||
- $500-$10K per report
|
||||
- Search across all major research firms
|
||||
|
||||
**MarketsandMarkets** (https://www.marketsandmarkets.com)
|
||||
|
||||
- Custom and syndicated research
|
||||
- $4K-$10K per report
|
||||
- Good for niche B2B markets
|
||||
@@ -168,14 +197,17 @@ Industry associations often publish market research:
|
||||
### Free Search Tools
|
||||
|
||||
**Google Scholar** (https://scholar.google.com)
|
||||
|
||||
- Free academic research
|
||||
- Best for: Emerging technologies, academic validation
|
||||
|
||||
**SSRN** (https://www.ssrn.com)
|
||||
|
||||
- Free working papers
|
||||
- Best for: Financial services, economics
|
||||
|
||||
**arXiv** (https://arxiv.org)
|
||||
|
||||
- Free preprints in CS, physics, etc.
|
||||
- Best for: AI/ML, scientific markets
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -184,28 +216,34 @@ Industry associations often publish market research:
|
||||
### Public Company Analysis
|
||||
|
||||
**Yahoo Finance** (Free)
|
||||
|
||||
- Public company financials
|
||||
- Segment revenue from earnings
|
||||
|
||||
**Seeking Alpha** (Free + Premium)
|
||||
|
||||
- Earnings transcripts
|
||||
- Analyst estimates
|
||||
|
||||
**Public company investor relations**
|
||||
|
||||
- Annual reports (10-K)
|
||||
- Investor presentations
|
||||
|
||||
### Private Company Intelligence
|
||||
|
||||
**PrivCo** (Custom pricing)
|
||||
|
||||
- Private company financials
|
||||
- M&A transaction data
|
||||
|
||||
**Owler** (Free + Premium)
|
||||
|
||||
- Company profiles and news
|
||||
- Revenue estimates
|
||||
|
||||
**SimilarWeb** (Free + Premium)
|
||||
|
||||
- Website traffic analytics
|
||||
- Best for: Online business sizing
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -214,28 +252,34 @@ Industry associations often publish market research:
|
||||
### Survey Tools
|
||||
|
||||
**SurveyMonkey** ($25-$75/month)
|
||||
|
||||
- DIY surveys
|
||||
- Best for: Customer willingness to pay
|
||||
|
||||
**Typeform** ($25-$83/month)
|
||||
|
||||
- Conversational surveys
|
||||
- Best for: User research
|
||||
|
||||
**Qualtrics** (Enterprise pricing)
|
||||
|
||||
- Professional research platform
|
||||
- Best for: Large-scale studies
|
||||
|
||||
### Panel Providers
|
||||
|
||||
**Respondent.io** ($100-$200 per response)
|
||||
|
||||
- Recruit professionals for interviews
|
||||
- Best for: B2B customer research
|
||||
|
||||
**UserTesting** ($49 per participant)
|
||||
|
||||
- User research and testing
|
||||
- Best for: Product validation
|
||||
|
||||
**Google Surveys** ($0.10-$3.50 per response)
|
||||
|
||||
- Quick consumer surveys
|
||||
- Best for: Basic consumer insights
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -244,26 +288,31 @@ Industry associations often publish market research:
|
||||
When evaluating sources:
|
||||
|
||||
**Authority**
|
||||
|
||||
- [ ] Who published the research?
|
||||
- [ ] What's their reputation?
|
||||
- [ ] Do they have industry expertise?
|
||||
|
||||
**Methodology**
|
||||
|
||||
- [ ] How was data collected?
|
||||
- [ ] What's the sample size?
|
||||
- [ ] When was research conducted?
|
||||
|
||||
**Recency**
|
||||
|
||||
- [ ] Is data current (< 2 years old)?
|
||||
- [ ] Has market changed significantly?
|
||||
- [ ] Are growth rates still applicable?
|
||||
|
||||
**Consistency**
|
||||
|
||||
- [ ] Do multiple sources agree?
|
||||
- [ ] Are definitions consistent?
|
||||
- [ ] Do numbers triangulate?
|
||||
|
||||
**Relevance**
|
||||
|
||||
- [ ] Does it match your market definition?
|
||||
- [ ] Is geography appropriate?
|
||||
- [ ] Are segments aligned?
|
||||
@@ -271,18 +320,21 @@ When evaluating sources:
|
||||
## Free vs. Paid Strategy
|
||||
|
||||
**Start with free sources:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Government data for customer counts
|
||||
2. Public company filings for segment revenue
|
||||
3. Trade associations for industry trends
|
||||
4. Google Scholar for academic research
|
||||
|
||||
**Upgrade to paid when:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Raising institutional funding (investors expect premium sources)
|
||||
- Need detailed segment breakdowns
|
||||
- Market is niche or emerging
|
||||
- Free sources are outdated or insufficient
|
||||
|
||||
**Cost-effective approach:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Buy 1-2 key reports that cover your core market
|
||||
- Use free sources for triangulation
|
||||
- Supplement with primary research (customer interviews)
|
||||
@@ -293,6 +345,7 @@ When evaluating sources:
|
||||
Always cite sources in market sizing:
|
||||
|
||||
**Format:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Market Size: $X.XB
|
||||
Source: [Publisher], [Report Name], [Date]
|
||||
@@ -300,6 +353,7 @@ URL: [link if available]
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Example:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Email Marketing Software TAM: $7.5B (2024)
|
||||
Source: Gartner, "Market Share: Email Marketing Software, Worldwide, 2024"
|
||||
@@ -307,6 +361,7 @@ Note: Includes all email marketing software revenue globally
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Include:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Publisher and report name
|
||||
- Publication date
|
||||
- Geography and scope
|
||||
@@ -316,26 +371,31 @@ Note: Includes all email marketing software revenue globally
|
||||
## Keeping Research Current
|
||||
|
||||
**Set Google Alerts**
|
||||
|
||||
- Industry keywords
|
||||
- Company names
|
||||
- Market terms
|
||||
|
||||
**Follow Research Firms**
|
||||
|
||||
- Twitter accounts
|
||||
- LinkedIn updates
|
||||
- Free newsletter summaries
|
||||
|
||||
**Track Public Companies**
|
||||
|
||||
- Earnings calendars
|
||||
- Investor relations pages
|
||||
- Annual reports
|
||||
|
||||
**Join Industry Groups**
|
||||
|
||||
- LinkedIn groups
|
||||
- Slack communities
|
||||
- Trade associations
|
||||
|
||||
**Review Annually**
|
||||
|
||||
- Update market size with new data
|
||||
- Adjust growth assumptions
|
||||
- Revisit methodology if market changed
|
||||
@@ -352,6 +412,7 @@ Note: Includes all email marketing software revenue globally
|
||||
6. **Triangulate** (15 min) - Compare sources
|
||||
|
||||
**Document everything:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Write down all sources
|
||||
- Note all assumptions
|
||||
- Show your methodology
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -20,12 +20,14 @@ Financial modeling provides the quantitative foundation for startup strategy, fu
|
||||
Build revenue from customer acquisition and retention by cohort.
|
||||
|
||||
**Formula:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
MRR = Σ (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU)
|
||||
ARR = MRR × 12
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Key Inputs:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Monthly new customer acquisitions
|
||||
- Customer retention rates by month
|
||||
- Average revenue per user (ARPU)
|
||||
@@ -63,6 +65,7 @@ ARR = MRR × 12
|
||||
### Cash Flow Analysis
|
||||
|
||||
**Components:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Beginning cash balance
|
||||
- Cash inflows (revenue, fundraising)
|
||||
- Cash outflows (operating expenses, CapEx)
|
||||
@@ -71,6 +74,7 @@ ARR = MRR × 12
|
||||
- Runway (months of cash remaining)
|
||||
|
||||
**Formula:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Runway = Current Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate
|
||||
Monthly Burn = Monthly Revenue - Monthly Expenses
|
||||
@@ -82,11 +86,13 @@ Monthly Burn = Monthly Revenue - Monthly Expenses
|
||||
Track headcount by department and role.
|
||||
|
||||
**Key Metrics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Fully-loaded cost per employee
|
||||
- Revenue per employee
|
||||
- Headcount by department (% of total)
|
||||
|
||||
**Typical Ratios (Early-Stage SaaS):**
|
||||
|
||||
- Engineering: 40-50%
|
||||
- Sales & Marketing: 25-35%
|
||||
- G&A: 10-15%
|
||||
@@ -97,6 +103,7 @@ Track headcount by department and role.
|
||||
### Three-Scenario Framework
|
||||
|
||||
**Conservative Scenario (P10):**
|
||||
|
||||
- Slower customer acquisition
|
||||
- Lower pricing or conversion
|
||||
- Higher churn rates
|
||||
@@ -104,12 +111,14 @@ Track headcount by department and role.
|
||||
- Used for cash management
|
||||
|
||||
**Base Scenario (P50):**
|
||||
|
||||
- Most likely outcomes
|
||||
- Realistic assumptions
|
||||
- Primary planning scenario
|
||||
- Used for board reporting
|
||||
|
||||
**Optimistic Scenario (P90):**
|
||||
|
||||
- Faster growth
|
||||
- Better unit economics
|
||||
- Lower churn
|
||||
@@ -118,11 +127,13 @@ Track headcount by department and role.
|
||||
### Time Horizon
|
||||
|
||||
**Detailed Projections: 3 Years**
|
||||
|
||||
- Monthly detail for Year 1
|
||||
- Monthly detail for Year 2
|
||||
- Quarterly detail for Year 3
|
||||
|
||||
**High-Level Projections: Years 4-5**
|
||||
|
||||
- Annual projections
|
||||
- Key metrics only
|
||||
- Support long-term planning
|
||||
@@ -134,18 +145,21 @@ Track headcount by department and role.
|
||||
Clarify revenue model and pricing.
|
||||
|
||||
**SaaS Model:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Subscription pricing tiers
|
||||
- Annual vs. monthly contracts
|
||||
- Free trial or freemium approach
|
||||
- Expansion revenue strategy
|
||||
|
||||
**Marketplace Model:**
|
||||
|
||||
- GMV projections
|
||||
- Take rate (% of transactions)
|
||||
- Buyer and seller economics
|
||||
- Transaction frequency
|
||||
|
||||
**Transactional Model:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Transaction volume
|
||||
- Revenue per transaction
|
||||
- Frequency and seasonality
|
||||
@@ -161,6 +175,7 @@ Define new customers acquired each month.
|
||||
Model customer retention over time.
|
||||
|
||||
**Typical SaaS Retention:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Month 1: 100%
|
||||
- Month 3: 90%
|
||||
- Month 6: 85%
|
||||
@@ -175,10 +190,12 @@ For each cohort, calculate retained customers × ARPU for each month.
|
||||
Break down costs by category and behavior.
|
||||
|
||||
**Fixed vs. Variable:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Fixed: Salaries, software, rent
|
||||
- Variable: Hosting, payment processing, support
|
||||
|
||||
**Scaling Assumptions:**
|
||||
|
||||
- COGS as % of revenue
|
||||
- S&M as % of revenue (CAC payback)
|
||||
- R&D growth rate
|
||||
@@ -189,12 +206,14 @@ Break down costs by category and behavior.
|
||||
Model headcount growth by role and department.
|
||||
|
||||
**Inputs:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Starting headcount
|
||||
- Hiring velocity by role
|
||||
- Fully-loaded compensation by role
|
||||
- Benefits and taxes (typically 1.3-1.4x salary)
|
||||
|
||||
**Example:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Engineer: $150K salary × 1.35 = $202K fully-loaded
|
||||
Sales Rep: $100K OTE × 1.30 = $130K fully-loaded
|
||||
@@ -205,6 +224,7 @@ Sales Rep: $100K OTE × 1.30 = $130K fully-loaded
|
||||
Calculate monthly cash position and runway.
|
||||
|
||||
**Monthly Cash Flow:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Beginning Cash
|
||||
+ Revenue Collected (consider payment terms)
|
||||
@@ -214,6 +234,7 @@ Beginning Cash
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Runway Calculation:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
If Ending Cash < 0:
|
||||
Funding Need = Negative Cash Balance
|
||||
@@ -227,22 +248,26 @@ Else:
|
||||
Track metrics that matter for stage.
|
||||
|
||||
**Revenue Metrics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- MRR / ARR
|
||||
- Growth rate (MoM, YoY)
|
||||
- Revenue by segment or cohort
|
||||
|
||||
**Unit Economics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost)
|
||||
- LTV (Lifetime Value)
|
||||
- CAC Payback Period
|
||||
- LTV / CAC Ratio
|
||||
|
||||
**Efficiency Metrics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Burn multiple (Net Burn / Net New ARR)
|
||||
- Magic number (Net New ARR / S&M Spend)
|
||||
- Rule of 40 (Growth % + Profit Margin %)
|
||||
|
||||
**Cash Metrics:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Monthly burn rate
|
||||
- Runway (months)
|
||||
- Cash efficiency
|
||||
@@ -252,12 +277,14 @@ Track metrics that matter for stage.
|
||||
Create three scenarios with different assumptions.
|
||||
|
||||
**Variable Assumptions:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Customer acquisition rate (±30%)
|
||||
- Churn rate (±20%)
|
||||
- Average contract value (±15%)
|
||||
- CAC (±25%)
|
||||
|
||||
**Fixed Assumptions:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Pricing structure
|
||||
- Core operating expenses
|
||||
- Hiring plan (adjust timing, not roles)
|
||||
@@ -267,18 +294,21 @@ Create three scenarios with different assumptions.
|
||||
### SaaS Financial Model
|
||||
|
||||
**Revenue Drivers:**
|
||||
|
||||
- New MRR (customers × ARPU)
|
||||
- Expansion MRR (upsells)
|
||||
- Contraction MRR (downgrades)
|
||||
- Churned MRR (lost customers)
|
||||
|
||||
**Key Ratios:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Gross margin: 75-85%
|
||||
- S&M as % revenue: 40-60% (early stage)
|
||||
- CAC payback: < 12 months
|
||||
- Net retention: 100-120%
|
||||
|
||||
**Example Projection:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Year 1: $500K ARR, 50 customers, $100K MRR by Dec
|
||||
Year 2: $2.5M ARR, 200 customers, $208K MRR by Dec
|
||||
@@ -288,16 +318,19 @@ Year 3: $8M ARR, 600 customers, $667K MRR by Dec
|
||||
### Marketplace Financial Model
|
||||
|
||||
**Revenue Drivers:**
|
||||
|
||||
- GMV (Gross Merchandise Value)
|
||||
- Take rate (% of GMV)
|
||||
- Net revenue = GMV × Take rate
|
||||
|
||||
**Key Ratios:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Take rate: 10-30% depending on category
|
||||
- CAC for buyers vs. sellers
|
||||
- Contribution margin: 60-70%
|
||||
|
||||
**Example Projection:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Year 1: $5M GMV, 15% take rate = $750K revenue
|
||||
Year 2: $20M GMV, 15% take rate = $3M revenue
|
||||
@@ -307,12 +340,14 @@ Year 3: $60M GMV, 15% take rate = $9M revenue
|
||||
### E-Commerce Financial Model
|
||||
|
||||
**Revenue Drivers:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Traffic (visitors)
|
||||
- Conversion rate
|
||||
- Average order value (AOV)
|
||||
- Purchase frequency
|
||||
|
||||
**Key Ratios:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Gross margin: 40-60%
|
||||
- Contribution margin: 20-35%
|
||||
- CAC payback: 3-6 months
|
||||
@@ -320,12 +355,14 @@ Year 3: $60M GMV, 15% take rate = $9M revenue
|
||||
### Services / Agency Financial Model
|
||||
|
||||
**Revenue Drivers:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Billable hours or projects
|
||||
- Hourly rate or project fee
|
||||
- Utilization rate
|
||||
- Team capacity
|
||||
|
||||
**Key Ratios:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Gross margin: 50-70%
|
||||
- Utilization: 70-85%
|
||||
- Revenue per employee
|
||||
@@ -338,6 +375,7 @@ Year 3: $60M GMV, 15% take rate = $9M revenue
|
||||
Based on metrics and comparables.
|
||||
|
||||
**Dilution:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Post-Money = Pre-Money + Investment
|
||||
Dilution % = Investment / Post-Money
|
||||
@@ -347,6 +385,7 @@ Dilution % = Investment / Post-Money
|
||||
Allocate funding to extend runway and achieve milestones.
|
||||
|
||||
**Example:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Raise: $5M at $20M pre-money
|
||||
Post-Money: $25M
|
||||
@@ -362,6 +401,7 @@ Use of Funds:
|
||||
### Milestone-Based Planning
|
||||
|
||||
**Identify Key Milestones:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Product launch
|
||||
- First $1M ARR
|
||||
- Break-even on CAC
|
||||
@@ -373,26 +413,31 @@ Ensure runway to achieve next milestone + 6 months buffer.
|
||||
## Common Pitfalls
|
||||
|
||||
**Pitfall 1: Overly Optimistic Revenue**
|
||||
|
||||
- New startups rarely hit aggressive projections
|
||||
- Use conservative customer acquisition assumptions
|
||||
- Model realistic churn rates
|
||||
|
||||
**Pitfall 2: Underestimating Costs**
|
||||
|
||||
- Add 20% buffer to expense estimates
|
||||
- Include fully-loaded compensation
|
||||
- Account for software and tools
|
||||
|
||||
**Pitfall 3: Ignoring Cash Flow Timing**
|
||||
|
||||
- Revenue ≠ cash (payment terms)
|
||||
- Expenses paid before revenue collected
|
||||
- Model cash conversion carefully
|
||||
|
||||
**Pitfall 4: Static Headcount**
|
||||
|
||||
- Hiring takes time (3-6 months to fill roles)
|
||||
- Ramp time for productivity (3-6 months)
|
||||
- Account for attrition (10-15% annually)
|
||||
|
||||
**Pitfall 5: Not Scenario Planning**
|
||||
|
||||
- Single scenario is never accurate
|
||||
- Always model conservative case
|
||||
- Plan for what you'll do if base case fails
|
||||
@@ -400,6 +445,7 @@ Ensure runway to achieve next milestone + 6 months buffer.
|
||||
## Model Validation
|
||||
|
||||
**Sanity Checks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- [ ] Revenue growth rate is achievable (3x in Year 2, 2x in Year 3)
|
||||
- [ ] Unit economics are realistic (LTV/CAC > 3, payback < 18 months)
|
||||
- [ ] Burn multiple is reasonable (< 2.0 in Year 2-3)
|
||||
@@ -418,6 +464,7 @@ Share model with advisors or investors for feedback on assumptions.
|
||||
### Reference Files
|
||||
|
||||
For detailed model structures and advanced techniques:
|
||||
|
||||
- **`references/model-templates.md`** - Complete financial model templates by business model
|
||||
- **`references/unit-economics.md`** - Deep dive on CAC, LTV, payback, and efficiency metrics
|
||||
- **`references/fundraising-scenarios.md`** - Modeling funding rounds and dilution
|
||||
@@ -425,6 +472,7 @@ For detailed model structures and advanced techniques:
|
||||
### Example Files
|
||||
|
||||
Working financial models with formulas:
|
||||
|
||||
- **`examples/saas-financial-model.md`** - Complete 3-year SaaS model with cohort analysis
|
||||
- **`examples/marketplace-model.md`** - Marketplace GMV and take rate projections
|
||||
- **`examples/scenario-analysis.md`** - Three-scenario framework with sensitivities
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -17,22 +17,26 @@ Track the right metrics at the right stage. Focus on unit economics, growth effi
|
||||
### Revenue Metrics
|
||||
|
||||
**MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue)**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
MRR = Σ (Active Subscriptions × Monthly Price)
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue)**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
ARR = MRR × 12
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Growth Rate**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
MoM Growth = (This Month MRR - Last Month MRR) / Last Month MRR
|
||||
YoY Growth = (This Year ARR - Last Year ARR) / Last Year ARR
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Target Benchmarks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Seed stage: 15-20% MoM growth
|
||||
- Series A: 10-15% MoM growth, 3-5x YoY
|
||||
- Series B+: 100%+ YoY (Rule of 40)
|
||||
@@ -40,6 +44,7 @@ YoY Growth = (This Year ARR - Last Year ARR) / Last Year ARR
|
||||
### Unit Economics
|
||||
|
||||
**CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost)**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
CAC = Total S&M Spend / New Customers Acquired
|
||||
```
|
||||
@@ -47,31 +52,37 @@ CAC = Total S&M Spend / New Customers Acquired
|
||||
Include: Sales salaries, marketing spend, tools, overhead
|
||||
|
||||
**LTV (Lifetime Value)**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
LTV = ARPU × Gross Margin% × (1 / Churn Rate)
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
Simplified:
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
LTV = ARPU × Average Customer Lifetime × Gross Margin%
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**LTV:CAC Ratio**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
LTV:CAC = LTV / CAC
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Benchmarks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- LTV:CAC > 3.0 = Healthy
|
||||
- LTV:CAC 1.0-3.0 = Needs improvement
|
||||
- LTV:CAC < 1.0 = Unsustainable
|
||||
|
||||
**CAC Payback Period**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
CAC Payback = CAC / (ARPU × Gross Margin%)
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Benchmarks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- < 12 months = Excellent
|
||||
- 12-18 months = Good
|
||||
- > 24 months = Concerning
|
||||
@@ -79,6 +90,7 @@ CAC Payback = CAC / (ARPU × Gross Margin%)
|
||||
### Cash Efficiency Metrics
|
||||
|
||||
**Burn Rate**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Monthly Burn = Monthly Revenue - Monthly Expenses
|
||||
```
|
||||
@@ -86,6 +98,7 @@ Monthly Burn = Monthly Revenue - Monthly Expenses
|
||||
Negative burn = losing money (typical early-stage)
|
||||
|
||||
**Runway**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Runway (months) = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate
|
||||
```
|
||||
@@ -93,11 +106,13 @@ Runway (months) = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate
|
||||
**Target:** Always maintain 12-18 months runway
|
||||
|
||||
**Burn Multiple**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Burn Multiple = Net Burn / Net New ARR
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Benchmarks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- < 1.0 = Exceptional efficiency
|
||||
- 1.0-1.5 = Good
|
||||
- 1.5-2.0 = Acceptable
|
||||
@@ -122,6 +137,7 @@ Downgrades from existing customers
|
||||
Lost customers
|
||||
|
||||
**Net New MRR Formula:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Net New MRR = New MRR + Expansion MRR - Contraction MRR - Churned MRR
|
||||
```
|
||||
@@ -129,26 +145,31 @@ Net New MRR = New MRR + Expansion MRR - Contraction MRR - Churned MRR
|
||||
### Retention Metrics
|
||||
|
||||
**Logo Retention**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Logo Retention = (Customers End - New Customers) / Customers Start
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Dollar Retention (NDR - Net Dollar Retention)**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
NDR = (ARR Start + Expansion - Contraction - Churn) / ARR Start
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Benchmarks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- NDR > 120% = Best-in-class
|
||||
- NDR 100-120% = Good
|
||||
- NDR < 100% = Needs work
|
||||
|
||||
**Gross Retention**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Gross Retention = (ARR Start - Churn - Contraction) / ARR Start
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Benchmarks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- > 90% = Excellent
|
||||
- 85-90% = Good
|
||||
- < 85% = Concerning
|
||||
@@ -156,21 +177,25 @@ Gross Retention = (ARR Start - Churn - Contraction) / ARR Start
|
||||
### SaaS-Specific Metrics
|
||||
|
||||
**Magic Number**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Magic Number = Net New ARR (quarter) / S&M Spend (prior quarter)
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Benchmarks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- > 0.75 = Efficient, ready to scale
|
||||
- 0.5-0.75 = Moderate efficiency
|
||||
- < 0.5 = Inefficient, don't scale yet
|
||||
|
||||
**Rule of 40**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Rule of 40 = Revenue Growth Rate% + Profit Margin%
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Benchmarks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- > 40% = Excellent
|
||||
- 20-40% = Acceptable
|
||||
- < 20% = Needs improvement
|
||||
@@ -179,11 +204,13 @@ Rule of 40 = Revenue Growth Rate% + Profit Margin%
|
||||
50% growth + (10%) margin = 40% ✓
|
||||
|
||||
**Quick Ratio**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Quick Ratio = (New MRR + Expansion MRR) / (Churned MRR + Contraction MRR)
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Benchmarks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- > 4.0 = Healthy growth
|
||||
- 2.0-4.0 = Moderate
|
||||
- < 2.0 = Churn problem
|
||||
@@ -193,11 +220,13 @@ Quick Ratio = (New MRR + Expansion MRR) / (Churned MRR + Contraction MRR)
|
||||
### GMV (Gross Merchandise Value)
|
||||
|
||||
**Total Transaction Volume:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
GMV = Σ (Transaction Value)
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Growth Rate:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
GMV Growth Rate = (Current Period GMV - Prior Period GMV) / Prior Period GMV
|
||||
```
|
||||
@@ -211,6 +240,7 @@ Take Rate = Net Revenue / GMV
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Typical Ranges:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Payment processors: 2-3%
|
||||
- E-commerce marketplaces: 10-20%
|
||||
- Service marketplaces: 15-25%
|
||||
@@ -228,6 +258,7 @@ How long from listing to sale/match?
|
||||
% of users who transact multiple times
|
||||
|
||||
**Benchmarks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill rate > 80% = Strong liquidity
|
||||
- Repeat rate > 60% = Strong retention
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -237,6 +268,7 @@ How long from listing to sale/match?
|
||||
Track relative growth of supply and demand sides.
|
||||
|
||||
**Warning Signs:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Too much supply: Low fill rates, frustrated suppliers
|
||||
- Too much demand: Long wait times, frustrated customers
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -253,11 +285,13 @@ Unique users active each day
|
||||
Unique users active each month
|
||||
|
||||
**DAU/MAU Ratio**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
DAU/MAU = DAU / MAU
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Benchmarks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- > 50% = Exceptional (daily habit)
|
||||
- 20-50% = Good
|
||||
- < 20% = Weak engagement
|
||||
@@ -275,11 +309,13 @@ Average time spent per session
|
||||
**Day 30 Retention:** % users active 30 days after signup
|
||||
|
||||
**Benchmarks (Day 30):**
|
||||
|
||||
- > 40% = Excellent
|
||||
- 25-40% = Good
|
||||
- < 25% = Weak
|
||||
|
||||
**Retention Curve Shape:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Flattening curve = good (users becoming habitual)
|
||||
- Steep decline = poor product-market fit
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -293,6 +329,7 @@ K-Factor = Invites per User × Invite Conversion Rate
|
||||
10 invites/user × 20% conversion = 2.0 K-factor
|
||||
|
||||
**Benchmarks:**
|
||||
|
||||
- K > 1.0 = Viral growth
|
||||
- K = 0.5-1.0 = Strong referrals
|
||||
- K < 0.5 = Weak virality
|
||||
@@ -302,6 +339,7 @@ K-Factor = Invites per User × Invite Conversion Rate
|
||||
### Sales Efficiency
|
||||
|
||||
**Win Rate**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Win Rate = Deals Won / Total Opportunities
|
||||
```
|
||||
@@ -312,11 +350,13 @@ Win Rate = Deals Won / Total Opportunities
|
||||
Average days from opportunity to close
|
||||
|
||||
**Shorter is better:**
|
||||
|
||||
- SMB: 30-60 days
|
||||
- Mid-market: 60-120 days
|
||||
- Enterprise: 120-270 days
|
||||
|
||||
**Average Contract Value (ACV)**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
ACV = Total Contract Value / Contract Length (years)
|
||||
```
|
||||
@@ -324,6 +364,7 @@ ACV = Total Contract Value / Contract Length (years)
|
||||
### Pipeline Metrics
|
||||
|
||||
**Pipeline Coverage**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Pipeline Coverage = Total Pipeline Value / Quota
|
||||
```
|
||||
@@ -331,6 +372,7 @@ Pipeline Coverage = Total Pipeline Value / Quota
|
||||
**Target:** 3-5x coverage (3-5x pipeline needed to hit quota)
|
||||
|
||||
**Conversion Rates by Stage:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Lead → Opportunity: 10-20%
|
||||
- Opportunity → Demo: 50-70%
|
||||
- Demo → Proposal: 30-50%
|
||||
@@ -341,12 +383,14 @@ Pipeline Coverage = Total Pipeline Value / Quota
|
||||
### Pre-Seed (Product-Market Fit)
|
||||
|
||||
**Focus Metrics:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Active users growth
|
||||
2. User retention (Day 7, Day 30)
|
||||
3. Core engagement (sessions, features used)
|
||||
4. Qualitative feedback (NPS, interviews)
|
||||
|
||||
**Don't worry about:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Revenue (may be zero)
|
||||
- CAC (not optimizing yet)
|
||||
- Unit economics
|
||||
@@ -354,18 +398,21 @@ Pipeline Coverage = Total Pipeline Value / Quota
|
||||
### Seed ($500K-$2M ARR)
|
||||
|
||||
**Focus Metrics:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. MRR growth rate (15-20% MoM)
|
||||
2. CAC and LTV (establish baseline)
|
||||
3. Gross retention (> 85%)
|
||||
4. Core product engagement
|
||||
|
||||
**Start tracking:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Sales efficiency
|
||||
- Burn rate and runway
|
||||
|
||||
### Series A ($2M-$10M ARR)
|
||||
|
||||
**Focus Metrics:**
|
||||
|
||||
1. ARR growth (3-5x YoY)
|
||||
2. Unit economics (LTV:CAC > 3, payback < 18 months)
|
||||
3. Net dollar retention (> 100%)
|
||||
@@ -373,6 +420,7 @@ Pipeline Coverage = Total Pipeline Value / Quota
|
||||
5. Magic number (> 0.5)
|
||||
|
||||
**Mature tracking:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Rule of 40
|
||||
- Sales efficiency
|
||||
- Pipeline coverage
|
||||
@@ -382,12 +430,14 @@ Pipeline Coverage = Total Pipeline Value / Quota
|
||||
### Data Infrastructure
|
||||
|
||||
**Requirements:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Single source of truth (analytics platform)
|
||||
- Real-time or daily updates
|
||||
- Automated calculations
|
||||
- Historical tracking
|
||||
|
||||
**Tools:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Mixpanel, Amplitude (product analytics)
|
||||
- ChartMogul, Baremetrics (SaaS metrics)
|
||||
- Looker, Tableau (BI dashboards)
|
||||
@@ -395,20 +445,24 @@ Pipeline Coverage = Total Pipeline Value / Quota
|
||||
### Reporting Cadence
|
||||
|
||||
**Daily:**
|
||||
|
||||
- MRR, active users
|
||||
- Sign-ups, conversions
|
||||
|
||||
**Weekly:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Growth rates
|
||||
- Retention cohorts
|
||||
- Sales pipeline
|
||||
|
||||
**Monthly:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Full metric suite
|
||||
- Board reporting
|
||||
- Investor updates
|
||||
|
||||
**Quarterly:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Trend analysis
|
||||
- Benchmarking
|
||||
- Strategy review
|
||||
@@ -417,6 +471,7 @@ Pipeline Coverage = Total Pipeline Value / Quota
|
||||
|
||||
**Mistake 1: Vanity Metrics**
|
||||
Don't focus on:
|
||||
|
||||
- Total users (without retention)
|
||||
- Page views (without engagement)
|
||||
- Downloads (without activation)
|
||||
@@ -440,12 +495,14 @@ Optimize for real business outcomes, not dashboard numbers.
|
||||
### What VCs Want to See
|
||||
|
||||
**Seed Round:**
|
||||
|
||||
- MRR growth rate
|
||||
- User retention
|
||||
- Early unit economics
|
||||
- Product engagement
|
||||
|
||||
**Series A:**
|
||||
|
||||
- ARR and growth rate
|
||||
- CAC payback < 18 months
|
||||
- LTV:CAC > 3.0
|
||||
@@ -453,6 +510,7 @@ Optimize for real business outcomes, not dashboard numbers.
|
||||
- Burn multiple < 2.0
|
||||
|
||||
**Series B+:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Rule of 40 > 40%
|
||||
- Efficient growth (magic number)
|
||||
- Path to profitability
|
||||
@@ -461,6 +519,7 @@ Optimize for real business outcomes, not dashboard numbers.
|
||||
### Metric Presentation
|
||||
|
||||
**Dashboard Format:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Current MRR: $250K (↑ 18% MoM)
|
||||
ARR: $3.0M (↑ 280% YoY)
|
||||
@@ -470,6 +529,7 @@ Burn: $180K/mo | Runway: 18 months
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Include:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Current value
|
||||
- Growth rate or trend
|
||||
- Context (target, benchmark)
|
||||
@@ -477,11 +537,13 @@ Burn: $180K/mo | Runway: 18 months
|
||||
## Additional Resources
|
||||
|
||||
### Reference Files
|
||||
|
||||
- **`references/metric-definitions.md`** - Complete definitions and formulas for 50+ metrics
|
||||
- **`references/benchmarks-by-stage.md`** - Target ranges for each metric by company stage
|
||||
- **`references/calculation-examples.md`** - Step-by-step calculation examples
|
||||
|
||||
### Example Files
|
||||
|
||||
- **`examples/saas-metrics-dashboard.md`** - Complete metrics suite for B2B SaaS company
|
||||
- **`examples/marketplace-metrics.md`** - Marketplace-specific metrics with examples
|
||||
- **`examples/investor-metrics-deck.md`** - How to present metrics for fundraising
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ Build the right team at the right time with appropriate compensation and equity.
|
||||
**Team Size: 2-5 people**
|
||||
|
||||
**Core Roles:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Founders (2-3): Product, engineering, business
|
||||
- First engineer (if needed)
|
||||
- Contract roles: Design, marketing
|
||||
@@ -30,6 +31,7 @@ Build the right team at the right time with appropriate compensation and equity.
|
||||
**Team Size: 5-15 people**
|
||||
|
||||
**Key Hires:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Engineering lead + 2-3 engineers
|
||||
- First sales/business development
|
||||
- Product manager
|
||||
@@ -42,6 +44,7 @@ Build the right team at the right time with appropriate compensation and equity.
|
||||
**Team Size: 15-50 people**
|
||||
|
||||
**Department Build-Out:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Engineering (40%): 6-20 people
|
||||
- Sales & Marketing (30%): 5-15 people
|
||||
- Customer Success (10%): 2-5 people
|
||||
@@ -55,15 +58,18 @@ Build the right team at the right time with appropriate compensation and equity.
|
||||
### Engineering Team
|
||||
|
||||
**Pre-Seed:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Founders write code
|
||||
- 0-1 contract developers
|
||||
|
||||
**Seed:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Engineering Lead (first $150K-$180K)
|
||||
- 2-3 Full-Stack Engineers ($120K-$150K)
|
||||
- 1 Frontend or Backend Specialist ($130K-$160K)
|
||||
|
||||
**Series A:**
|
||||
|
||||
- VP Engineering ($180K-$250K + equity)
|
||||
- 2-3 Senior Engineers ($150K-$180K)
|
||||
- 3-5 Mid-Level Engineers ($120K-$150K)
|
||||
@@ -73,15 +79,18 @@ Build the right team at the right time with appropriate compensation and equity.
|
||||
### Sales & Marketing
|
||||
|
||||
**Pre-Seed:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Founders do sales
|
||||
- Contract marketing help
|
||||
|
||||
**Seed:**
|
||||
|
||||
- First Sales Hire / Head of Sales ($120K-$150K + commission)
|
||||
- Marketing/Growth Lead ($100K-$140K)
|
||||
- SDR or BDR (if B2B) ($50K-$70K + commission)
|
||||
|
||||
**Series A:**
|
||||
|
||||
- VP Sales ($150K-$200K + commission + equity)
|
||||
- 3-5 Account Executives ($80K-$120K + commission)
|
||||
- 2-3 SDRs/BDRs ($50K-$70K + commission)
|
||||
@@ -91,13 +100,16 @@ Build the right team at the right time with appropriate compensation and equity.
|
||||
### Product Team
|
||||
|
||||
**Pre-Seed:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Founder as product lead
|
||||
|
||||
**Seed:**
|
||||
|
||||
- First Product Manager ($120K-$150K)
|
||||
- Contract designer
|
||||
|
||||
**Series A:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Head of Product ($150K-$180K)
|
||||
- 1-2 Product Managers ($120K-$150K)
|
||||
- Product Designer ($100K-$140K)
|
||||
@@ -106,12 +118,15 @@ Build the right team at the right time with appropriate compensation and equity.
|
||||
### Customer Success
|
||||
|
||||
**Pre-Seed:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Founders handle support
|
||||
|
||||
**Seed:**
|
||||
|
||||
- First CS hire (optional) ($60K-$90K)
|
||||
|
||||
**Series A:**
|
||||
|
||||
- CS Manager ($100K-$130K)
|
||||
- 2-4 CS Representatives ($60K-$90K)
|
||||
- Support Engineer (technical) ($80K-$120K)
|
||||
@@ -119,13 +134,16 @@ Build the right team at the right time with appropriate compensation and equity.
|
||||
### G&A (General & Administrative)
|
||||
|
||||
**Pre-Seed:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Contractors (accounting, legal)
|
||||
|
||||
**Seed:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Operations/Office Manager ($70K-$100K)
|
||||
- Contract CFO
|
||||
|
||||
**Series A:**
|
||||
|
||||
- CFO or Finance Lead ($150K-$200K)
|
||||
- Recruiter ($80K-$120K)
|
||||
- Office Manager / EA ($60K-$90K)
|
||||
@@ -135,6 +153,7 @@ Build the right team at the right time with appropriate compensation and equity.
|
||||
### Base Salary Benchmarks (US, 2024)
|
||||
|
||||
**Engineering:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Junior: $90K-$120K
|
||||
- Mid-Level: $120K-$150K
|
||||
- Senior: $150K-$180K
|
||||
@@ -143,24 +162,28 @@ Build the right team at the right time with appropriate compensation and equity.
|
||||
- VP Engineering: $180K-$250K
|
||||
|
||||
**Sales:**
|
||||
|
||||
- SDR/BDR: $50K-$70K base + $50K-$70K commission
|
||||
- Account Executive: $80K-$120K base + $80K-$120K commission
|
||||
- Sales Manager: $120K-$160K base + $80K-$120K commission
|
||||
- VP Sales: $150K-$200K base + $150K-$200K commission
|
||||
|
||||
**Product:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Product Manager: $120K-$150K
|
||||
- Senior PM: $150K-$180K
|
||||
- Head of Product: $150K-$180K
|
||||
- VP Product: $180K-$220K
|
||||
|
||||
**Marketing:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Marketing Manager: $90K-$130K
|
||||
- Content/Demand Gen: $70K-$100K
|
||||
- Head of Marketing: $130K-$170K
|
||||
- VP Marketing: $150K-$200K
|
||||
|
||||
**Customer Success:**
|
||||
|
||||
- CS Representative: $60K-$90K
|
||||
- CS Manager: $100K-$130K
|
||||
- VP Customer Success: $140K-$180K
|
||||
@@ -172,6 +195,7 @@ Total Comp = Base Salary × 1.30 (benefits & taxes) + Equity Value
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Fully-Loaded Cost:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Base salary
|
||||
- Payroll taxes (7.65% FICA)
|
||||
- Benefits (health insurance, 401k): $10K-$15K per employee
|
||||
@@ -192,22 +216,26 @@ Total Comp = Base Salary × 1.30 (benefits & taxes) + Equity Value
|
||||
### Equity by Role and Stage
|
||||
|
||||
**Founders:**
|
||||
|
||||
- First founder: 40-60%
|
||||
- Second founder: 20-40%
|
||||
- Third founder: 10-20%
|
||||
- Vesting: 4 years with 1-year cliff
|
||||
|
||||
**Early Employees (Pre-Seed):**
|
||||
|
||||
- First engineer: 0.5-2.0%
|
||||
- First 5 employees: 0.25-1.0% each
|
||||
|
||||
**Seed Stage Hires:**
|
||||
|
||||
- VP/Head level: 0.5-1.5%
|
||||
- Senior IC: 0.1-0.5%
|
||||
- Mid-level: 0.05-0.25%
|
||||
- Junior: 0.01-0.1%
|
||||
|
||||
**Series A Hires:**
|
||||
|
||||
- C-level (CTO, CFO): 1.0-3.0%
|
||||
- VP level: 0.3-1.0%
|
||||
- Director level: 0.1-0.5%
|
||||
@@ -218,6 +246,7 @@ Total Comp = Base Salary × 1.30 (benefits & taxes) + Equity Value
|
||||
### Equity Pool Sizing
|
||||
|
||||
**Option Pool by Round:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Pre-Seed: 10-15% reserved
|
||||
- Seed: 10-15% top-up
|
||||
- Series A: 10-15% top-up
|
||||
@@ -227,6 +256,7 @@ Total Comp = Base Salary × 1.30 (benefits & taxes) + Equity Value
|
||||
Investors often require option pool creation before investment, diluting founders.
|
||||
|
||||
**Example:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Pre-money: $10M
|
||||
Investors want 15% option pool post-money
|
||||
@@ -242,6 +272,7 @@ Founders diluted by pool creation before new money
|
||||
### Reporting Structure
|
||||
|
||||
**Pre-Seed:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Founders (flat structure)
|
||||
├── Contractors
|
||||
@@ -249,6 +280,7 @@ Founders (flat structure)
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Seed:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
CEO
|
||||
├── Engineering Lead (2-4 engineers)
|
||||
@@ -258,6 +290,7 @@ CEO
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Series A:**
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
CEO
|
||||
├── CTO / VP Engineering (6-20 people)
|
||||
@@ -279,6 +312,7 @@ CEO
|
||||
### Span of Control
|
||||
|
||||
**Manager Ratios:**
|
||||
|
||||
- First-line managers: 4-8 direct reports
|
||||
- Directors: 3-5 direct reports (managers)
|
||||
- VPs: 3-5 direct reports (directors)
|
||||
@@ -287,12 +321,14 @@ CEO
|
||||
## Full-Time vs. Contract
|
||||
|
||||
### Use Full-Time for:
|
||||
|
||||
- Core product development
|
||||
- Sales (revenue-generating roles)
|
||||
- Mission-critical operations
|
||||
- Institutional knowledge roles
|
||||
|
||||
### Use Contractors for:
|
||||
|
||||
- Specialized short-term needs (legal, accounting)
|
||||
- Variable workload (design, marketing campaigns)
|
||||
- Skills outside core competency
|
||||
@@ -302,12 +338,14 @@ CEO
|
||||
### Cost Comparison
|
||||
|
||||
**Full-Time:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Lower hourly cost
|
||||
- Benefits and overhead
|
||||
- Long-term commitment
|
||||
- Cultural fit matters
|
||||
|
||||
**Contract:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Higher hourly rate ($75-$200/hour vs. $40-$100/hour FTE equivalent)
|
||||
- No benefits or overhead
|
||||
- Flexible engagement
|
||||
@@ -318,12 +356,14 @@ CEO
|
||||
### Realistic Timeline
|
||||
|
||||
**Role Opening to Hire:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Junior: 6-8 weeks
|
||||
- Mid-Level: 8-12 weeks
|
||||
- Senior: 12-16 weeks
|
||||
- Executive: 16-24 weeks
|
||||
|
||||
**Time to Productivity:**
|
||||
|
||||
- Junior: 4-6 months
|
||||
- Mid-Level: 2-4 months
|
||||
- Senior: 1-3 months
|
||||
@@ -335,6 +375,7 @@ Always add 2-3 months buffer to hiring plans.
|
||||
|
||||
**Example:**
|
||||
If need engineer by July 1:
|
||||
|
||||
- Start recruiting: April 1 (12 weeks)
|
||||
- Productivity: September 1 (2 months ramp)
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -343,12 +384,14 @@ If need engineer by July 1:
|
||||
### Compensation as % of Revenue
|
||||
|
||||
**Early Stage (Seed):**
|
||||
|
||||
- Total comp: 120-150% of revenue (burning cash to grow)
|
||||
- Engineering: 50-60%
|
||||
- Sales: 30-40%
|
||||
- Other: 20-30%
|
||||
|
||||
**Growth Stage (Series A):**
|
||||
|
||||
- Total comp: 70-100% of revenue
|
||||
- Engineering: 35-45%
|
||||
- Sales: 25-35%
|
||||
@@ -369,10 +412,12 @@ Total: $1.1M
|
||||
## Additional Resources
|
||||
|
||||
### Reference Files
|
||||
|
||||
- **`references/compensation-benchmarks.md`** - Detailed salary data by role, level, and location
|
||||
- **`references/equity-calculator.md`** - Equity sizing formulas and dilution scenarios
|
||||
|
||||
### Example Files
|
||||
|
||||
- **`examples/seed-stage-hiring-plan.md`** - Complete hiring plan for seed-stage SaaS company
|
||||
- **`examples/org-chart-evolution.md`** - Organizational design from 5 to 50 people
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user