style: format all files with prettier

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Seth Hobson
2026-01-19 17:07:03 -05:00
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commit 56848874a2
355 changed files with 15215 additions and 10241 deletions

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@@ -20,12 +20,14 @@ Financial modeling provides the quantitative foundation for startup strategy, fu
Build revenue from customer acquisition and retention by cohort.
**Formula:**
```
MRR = Σ (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU)
ARR = MRR × 12
```
**Key Inputs:**
- Monthly new customer acquisitions
- Customer retention rates by month
- Average revenue per user (ARPU)
@@ -63,6 +65,7 @@ ARR = MRR × 12
### Cash Flow Analysis
**Components:**
- Beginning cash balance
- Cash inflows (revenue, fundraising)
- Cash outflows (operating expenses, CapEx)
@@ -71,6 +74,7 @@ ARR = MRR × 12
- Runway (months of cash remaining)
**Formula:**
```
Runway = Current Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate
Monthly Burn = Monthly Revenue - Monthly Expenses
@@ -82,11 +86,13 @@ Monthly Burn = Monthly Revenue - Monthly Expenses
Track headcount by department and role.
**Key Metrics:**
- Fully-loaded cost per employee
- Revenue per employee
- Headcount by department (% of total)
**Typical Ratios (Early-Stage SaaS):**
- Engineering: 40-50%
- Sales & Marketing: 25-35%
- G&A: 10-15%
@@ -97,6 +103,7 @@ Track headcount by department and role.
### Three-Scenario Framework
**Conservative Scenario (P10):**
- Slower customer acquisition
- Lower pricing or conversion
- Higher churn rates
@@ -104,12 +111,14 @@ Track headcount by department and role.
- Used for cash management
**Base Scenario (P50):**
- Most likely outcomes
- Realistic assumptions
- Primary planning scenario
- Used for board reporting
**Optimistic Scenario (P90):**
- Faster growth
- Better unit economics
- Lower churn
@@ -118,11 +127,13 @@ Track headcount by department and role.
### Time Horizon
**Detailed Projections: 3 Years**
- Monthly detail for Year 1
- Monthly detail for Year 2
- Quarterly detail for Year 3
**High-Level Projections: Years 4-5**
- Annual projections
- Key metrics only
- Support long-term planning
@@ -134,18 +145,21 @@ Track headcount by department and role.
Clarify revenue model and pricing.
**SaaS Model:**
- Subscription pricing tiers
- Annual vs. monthly contracts
- Free trial or freemium approach
- Expansion revenue strategy
**Marketplace Model:**
- GMV projections
- Take rate (% of transactions)
- Buyer and seller economics
- Transaction frequency
**Transactional Model:**
- Transaction volume
- Revenue per transaction
- Frequency and seasonality
@@ -161,6 +175,7 @@ Define new customers acquired each month.
Model customer retention over time.
**Typical SaaS Retention:**
- Month 1: 100%
- Month 3: 90%
- Month 6: 85%
@@ -175,10 +190,12 @@ For each cohort, calculate retained customers × ARPU for each month.
Break down costs by category and behavior.
**Fixed vs. Variable:**
- Fixed: Salaries, software, rent
- Variable: Hosting, payment processing, support
**Scaling Assumptions:**
- COGS as % of revenue
- S&M as % of revenue (CAC payback)
- R&D growth rate
@@ -189,12 +206,14 @@ Break down costs by category and behavior.
Model headcount growth by role and department.
**Inputs:**
- Starting headcount
- Hiring velocity by role
- Fully-loaded compensation by role
- Benefits and taxes (typically 1.3-1.4x salary)
**Example:**
```
Engineer: $150K salary × 1.35 = $202K fully-loaded
Sales Rep: $100K OTE × 1.30 = $130K fully-loaded
@@ -205,6 +224,7 @@ Sales Rep: $100K OTE × 1.30 = $130K fully-loaded
Calculate monthly cash position and runway.
**Monthly Cash Flow:**
```
Beginning Cash
+ Revenue Collected (consider payment terms)
@@ -214,6 +234,7 @@ Beginning Cash
```
**Runway Calculation:**
```
If Ending Cash < 0:
Funding Need = Negative Cash Balance
@@ -227,22 +248,26 @@ Else:
Track metrics that matter for stage.
**Revenue Metrics:**
- MRR / ARR
- Growth rate (MoM, YoY)
- Revenue by segment or cohort
**Unit Economics:**
- CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost)
- LTV (Lifetime Value)
- CAC Payback Period
- LTV / CAC Ratio
**Efficiency Metrics:**
- Burn multiple (Net Burn / Net New ARR)
- Magic number (Net New ARR / S&M Spend)
- Rule of 40 (Growth % + Profit Margin %)
**Cash Metrics:**
- Monthly burn rate
- Runway (months)
- Cash efficiency
@@ -252,12 +277,14 @@ Track metrics that matter for stage.
Create three scenarios with different assumptions.
**Variable Assumptions:**
- Customer acquisition rate (±30%)
- Churn rate (±20%)
- Average contract value (±15%)
- CAC (±25%)
**Fixed Assumptions:**
- Pricing structure
- Core operating expenses
- Hiring plan (adjust timing, not roles)
@@ -267,18 +294,21 @@ Create three scenarios with different assumptions.
### SaaS Financial Model
**Revenue Drivers:**
- New MRR (customers × ARPU)
- Expansion MRR (upsells)
- Contraction MRR (downgrades)
- Churned MRR (lost customers)
**Key Ratios:**
- Gross margin: 75-85%
- S&M as % revenue: 40-60% (early stage)
- CAC payback: < 12 months
- Net retention: 100-120%
**Example Projection:**
```
Year 1: $500K ARR, 50 customers, $100K MRR by Dec
Year 2: $2.5M ARR, 200 customers, $208K MRR by Dec
@@ -288,16 +318,19 @@ Year 3: $8M ARR, 600 customers, $667K MRR by Dec
### Marketplace Financial Model
**Revenue Drivers:**
- GMV (Gross Merchandise Value)
- Take rate (% of GMV)
- Net revenue = GMV × Take rate
**Key Ratios:**
- Take rate: 10-30% depending on category
- CAC for buyers vs. sellers
- Contribution margin: 60-70%
**Example Projection:**
```
Year 1: $5M GMV, 15% take rate = $750K revenue
Year 2: $20M GMV, 15% take rate = $3M revenue
@@ -307,12 +340,14 @@ Year 3: $60M GMV, 15% take rate = $9M revenue
### E-Commerce Financial Model
**Revenue Drivers:**
- Traffic (visitors)
- Conversion rate
- Average order value (AOV)
- Purchase frequency
**Key Ratios:**
- Gross margin: 40-60%
- Contribution margin: 20-35%
- CAC payback: 3-6 months
@@ -320,12 +355,14 @@ Year 3: $60M GMV, 15% take rate = $9M revenue
### Services / Agency Financial Model
**Revenue Drivers:**
- Billable hours or projects
- Hourly rate or project fee
- Utilization rate
- Team capacity
**Key Ratios:**
- Gross margin: 50-70%
- Utilization: 70-85%
- Revenue per employee
@@ -338,6 +375,7 @@ Year 3: $60M GMV, 15% take rate = $9M revenue
Based on metrics and comparables.
**Dilution:**
```
Post-Money = Pre-Money + Investment
Dilution % = Investment / Post-Money
@@ -347,6 +385,7 @@ Dilution % = Investment / Post-Money
Allocate funding to extend runway and achieve milestones.
**Example:**
```
Raise: $5M at $20M pre-money
Post-Money: $25M
@@ -362,6 +401,7 @@ Use of Funds:
### Milestone-Based Planning
**Identify Key Milestones:**
- Product launch
- First $1M ARR
- Break-even on CAC
@@ -373,26 +413,31 @@ Ensure runway to achieve next milestone + 6 months buffer.
## Common Pitfalls
**Pitfall 1: Overly Optimistic Revenue**
- New startups rarely hit aggressive projections
- Use conservative customer acquisition assumptions
- Model realistic churn rates
**Pitfall 2: Underestimating Costs**
- Add 20% buffer to expense estimates
- Include fully-loaded compensation
- Account for software and tools
**Pitfall 3: Ignoring Cash Flow Timing**
- Revenue ≠ cash (payment terms)
- Expenses paid before revenue collected
- Model cash conversion carefully
**Pitfall 4: Static Headcount**
- Hiring takes time (3-6 months to fill roles)
- Ramp time for productivity (3-6 months)
- Account for attrition (10-15% annually)
**Pitfall 5: Not Scenario Planning**
- Single scenario is never accurate
- Always model conservative case
- Plan for what you'll do if base case fails
@@ -400,6 +445,7 @@ Ensure runway to achieve next milestone + 6 months buffer.
## Model Validation
**Sanity Checks:**
- [ ] Revenue growth rate is achievable (3x in Year 2, 2x in Year 3)
- [ ] Unit economics are realistic (LTV/CAC > 3, payback < 18 months)
- [ ] Burn multiple is reasonable (< 2.0 in Year 2-3)
@@ -418,6 +464,7 @@ Share model with advisors or investors for feedback on assumptions.
### Reference Files
For detailed model structures and advanced techniques:
- **`references/model-templates.md`** - Complete financial model templates by business model
- **`references/unit-economics.md`** - Deep dive on CAC, LTV, payback, and efficiency metrics
- **`references/fundraising-scenarios.md`** - Modeling funding rounds and dilution
@@ -425,6 +472,7 @@ For detailed model structures and advanced techniques:
### Example Files
Working financial models with formulas:
- **`examples/saas-financial-model.md`** - Complete 3-year SaaS model with cohort analysis
- **`examples/marketplace-model.md`** - Marketplace GMV and take rate projections
- **`examples/scenario-analysis.md`** - Three-scenario framework with sensitivities