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feat: add startup-business-analyst plugin
Comprehensive startup analysis plugin with market sizing, financial modeling, team planning, and strategic research for early-stage companies. - 5 skills: market sizing, financial modeling, team planning, competitive analysis, metrics - 3 commands: market-opportunity, financial-projections, business-case - 1 agent: startup-analyst - Covers TAM/SAM/SOM, unit economics, competitive landscape, hiring plans
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Seth Hobson
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---
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name: financial-projections
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description: Create detailed 3-5 year financial model with revenue, costs, cash flow, and scenarios
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allowed-tools: [Read, Write, Grep, Glob, Bash]
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---
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Create a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost structure, headcount planning, cash flow analysis, and three-scenario modeling (conservative, base, optimistic) for startup financial planning and fundraising.
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## What This Command Does
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This command builds a complete financial model including:
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1. Cohort-based revenue projections
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2. Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A)
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3. Headcount planning by role
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4. Monthly cash flow analysis
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5. Key metrics (CAC, LTV, burn rate, runway)
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6. Three-scenario analysis
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## Instructions for Claude
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When this command is invoked, follow these steps:
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### Step 1: Gather Model Inputs
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Ask the user for essential information:
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**Business Model:**
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- Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.)
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- Pricing structure (tiers, average price)
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- Target customer segments
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**Starting Point:**
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- Current MRR/ARR (if any)
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- Current customer count
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- Current team size
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- Current cash balance
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**Growth Assumptions:**
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- Expected monthly customer acquisition
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- Customer retention/churn rate
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- Average contract value (ACV)
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- Sales cycle length
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**Cost Assumptions:**
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- Gross margin or COGS %
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- S&M budget or CAC target
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- Current burn rate (if applicable)
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**Funding:**
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- Planned fundraising (amount, timing)
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- Pre/post-money valuation
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### Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill
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The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for:
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- Revenue modeling approaches
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- Cost structure templates
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- Headcount planning guidance
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- Scenario analysis methods
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### Step 3: Build Revenue Model
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**Use Cohort-Based Approach:**
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For each month, track:
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1. New customers acquired
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2. Existing customers retained (apply churn)
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3. Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU)
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4. Expansion revenue (upsells)
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**Formula:**
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```
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MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:
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(Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion
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```
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**Project:**
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- Monthly detail for Year 1-2
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- Quarterly detail for Year 3
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- Annual for Years 4-5
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### Step 4: Model Cost Structure
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Break down operating expenses:
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**1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)**
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- Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)
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- Payment processing (% of revenue)
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- Variable customer support
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- Third-party services
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Target gross margin:
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- SaaS: 75-85%
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- Marketplace: 60-70%
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- E-commerce: 40-60%
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**2. Sales & Marketing (S&M)**
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- Sales team compensation
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- Marketing programs
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- Tools and software
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- Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage)
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**3. Research & Development (R&D)**
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- Engineering team
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- Product management
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- Design
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- Target: 30-40% of revenue
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**4. General & Administrative (G&A)**
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- Executive team
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- Finance, legal, HR
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- Office and facilities
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- Target: 15-25% of revenue
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### Step 5: Plan Headcount
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Create role-by-role hiring plan:
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**Reference team-composition-analysis skill for:**
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- Roles by stage
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- Compensation benchmarks
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- Hiring velocity assumptions
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**For each role:**
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- Title and department
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- Start date (month/quarter)
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- Base salary
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- Fully-loaded cost (salary × 1.3-1.4)
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- Equity grant
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**Track departmental ratios:**
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- Engineering: 40-50% of team
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- Sales & Marketing: 25-35%
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- G&A: 10-15%
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- Product/CS: 10-15%
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### Step 6: Calculate Cash Flow
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Monthly cash flow projection:
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```
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Beginning Cash Balance
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+ Cash Collected (revenue, consider payment terms)
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- Operating Expenses
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- CapEx
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= Ending Cash Balance
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Monthly Burn = Revenue - Expenses (if negative)
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Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate
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```
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**Include Funding Events:**
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- Timing of raises
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- Amount raised
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- Use of proceeds
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- Impact on cash balance
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### Step 7: Compute Key Metrics
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Calculate monthly/quarterly:
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**Unit Economics:**
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- CAC (S&M spend / new customers)
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- LTV (ARPU × margin% / churn rate)
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- LTV:CAC ratio (target > 3.0)
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- CAC payback period (target < 18 months)
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**Efficiency Metrics:**
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- Burn multiple (net burn / net new ARR) - target < 2.0
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- Magic number (net new ARR / S&M spend) - target > 0.5
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- Rule of 40 (growth% + margin%) - target > 40%
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**Cash Metrics:**
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- Monthly burn rate
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- Runway in months
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- Cash efficiency
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### Step 8: Create Three Scenarios
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Build conservative, base, and optimistic projections:
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**Conservative (P10):**
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- New customers: -30% vs. base
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- Churn: +20% vs. base
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- Pricing: -15% vs. base
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- CAC: +25% vs. base
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**Base (P50):**
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- Most likely assumptions
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- Primary planning scenario
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**Optimistic (P90):**
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- New customers: +30% vs. base
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- Churn: -20% vs. base
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- Pricing: +15% vs. base
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- CAC: -25% vs. base
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### Step 9: Generate Financial Model Report
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Create comprehensive markdown report with tables:
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**Section 1: Executive Summary**
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- 3-5 year financial snapshot
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- Key metrics at scale
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- Funding requirements
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**Section 2: Model Assumptions**
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- Revenue model and pricing
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- Growth assumptions
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- Cost structure assumptions
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- Headcount plan summary
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**Section 3: Revenue Projections**
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Monthly/quarterly tables showing:
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```
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| Month | New Customers | Total Customers | MRR | ARR | Growth % |
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|-------|---------------|-----------------|-----|-----|----------|
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```
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**Section 4: Cost Breakdown**
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```
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| Department | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | % Revenue |
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|------------|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
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| COGS | $X | $Y | $Z | XX% |
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| S&M | $X | $Y | $Z | XX% |
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| R&D | $X | $Y | $Z | XX% |
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| G&A | $X | $Y | $Z | XX% |
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```
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**Section 5: Headcount Plan**
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```
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| Department | Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
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|------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|
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| Engineering| X | Y | Z | W |
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```
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**Section 6: Cash Flow Analysis**
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```
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| Quarter | Revenue | Expenses | Net Burn | Cash Balance | Runway |
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|---------|---------|----------|----------|--------------|--------|
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```
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**Section 7: Key Metrics**
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```
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| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target |
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|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
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| CAC | $X | $Y | $Z | <$A |
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| LTV | $X | $Y | $Z | >$B |
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| Burn Multiple | X | Y | Z | <2.0 |
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```
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**Section 8: Scenario Analysis**
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```
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| Scenario | Year 3 ARR | Customers | Burn | Runway |
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|----------|------------|-----------|------|--------|
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| Conservative | $Xم | Y | $Z | W mo |
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| Base | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |
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| Optimistic | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |
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```
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**Section 9: Funding Requirements**
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- Amount needed
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- Use of proceeds breakdown
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- Milestones to achieve
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- Expected valuation impact
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**Section 10: Validation**
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- Sanity checks performed
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- Benchmark comparisons
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- Risk factors
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- Assumptions to monitor
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### Step 10: Save Model
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Offer to save as markdown file:
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- Suggest filename: `financial-projections-YYYY-MM-DD.md`
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- Include note that user can convert to Excel/Sheets
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- Provide formulas for key calculations
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## Financial Model Best Practices
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**Do:**
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- Use cohort-based revenue model
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- Include 3 scenarios
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- Show monthly detail (Year 1-2)
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- Calculate key metrics
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- Validate against benchmarks
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- Document all assumptions
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- Show cash flow and runway
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- Include fundraising milestones
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**Don't:**
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- Be overly optimistic on growth
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- Underestimate costs
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- Forget fully-loaded compensation
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- Ignore cash timing
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- Skip scenario analysis
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- Use static headcount
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- Forget to validate
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## Integration with Other Commands
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Pairs well with:
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- `/market-opportunity` - Use SOM for revenue ceiling
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- `/business-case` - Include projections in business case
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## Example Usage
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```
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User: /financial-projections
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Claude: I'll create a comprehensive financial model for your startup. Let me gather the key inputs.
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What's your business model?
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→ "B2B SaaS, subscription-based"
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Current state?
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→ "$50K MRR, 100 customers, 5-person team, $500K cash"
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Growth assumptions?
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→ "Expect 15% MoM growth, 10% monthly churn, $500 ACV"
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[Claude builds complete model with all sections]
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```
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## Notes
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- Model building takes 45-90 minutes
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- Results in comprehensive planning tool
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- Update monthly to track vs. actuals
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- Share with investors and board
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- Use for fundraising decks
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- Basis for budget and hiring decisions
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