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Comprehensive startup analysis plugin with market sizing, financial modeling, team planning, and strategic research for early-stage companies. - 5 skills: market sizing, financial modeling, team planning, competitive analysis, metrics - 3 commands: market-opportunity, financial-projections, business-case - 1 agent: startup-analyst - Covers TAM/SAM/SOM, unit economics, competitive landscape, hiring plans
221 lines
6.3 KiB
Markdown
221 lines
6.3 KiB
Markdown
---
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name: market-opportunity
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description: Generate comprehensive market opportunity analysis with TAM/SAM/SOM calculations
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allowed-tools: [Read, Write, Grep, Glob, WebSearch, WebFetch, Bash]
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---
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Generate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations using both bottom-up and top-down methodologies.
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## What This Command Does
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This command guides through an interactive market sizing process to:
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1. Define the target market and customer segments
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2. Gather relevant market data
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3. Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology
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4. Validate with top-down analysis
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5. Narrow to SAM with appropriate filters
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6. Estimate realistic SOM (3-5 year opportunity)
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7. Present findings in a formatted report
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## Instructions for Claude
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When this command is invoked, follow these steps:
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### Step 1: Gather Context
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Ask the user for essential information:
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- **Product/Service Description:** What problem is being solved?
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- **Target Customers:** Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography)
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- **Business Model:** How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.)
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- **Stage:** What stage is the company? (pre-launch, seed, Series A)
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- **Geography:** Initial target market (US, North America, Global)
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### Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill
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The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for:
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- Bottom-up calculation frameworks
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- Top-down validation approaches
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- Industry-specific templates
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- Data source recommendations
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### Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis
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**For B2B/SaaS:**
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1. Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case)
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2. Estimate number of companies in each segment
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3. Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment
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4. Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV)
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**For Consumer/Marketplace:**
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1. Define target user demographics
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2. Estimate total addressable users
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3. Determine average revenue per user (ARPU)
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4. Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency
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**For Transactions/E-commerce:**
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1. Estimate total transaction volume (GMV)
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2. Determine take rate or margin
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3. Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate
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### Step 4: Gather Market Data
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Use available tools to research:
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- **WebSearch:** Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data
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- **Cite all sources** with URLs and publication dates
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- **Document assumptions** clearly
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Recommended data sources (from skill):
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- Government data (Census, BLS)
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- Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista)
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- Public company filings (10-K reports)
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- Trade associations
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- Academic research
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### Step 5: Top-Down Validation
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Validate bottom-up calculation:
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1. Find total market category size from research
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2. Apply geographic filters
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3. Apply segment/product filters
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4. Compare to bottom-up TAM (should be within 30%)
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If variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences.
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### Step 6: Calculate SAM
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Apply realistic filters to narrow TAM:
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- **Geographic:** Regions actually serviceable
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- **Product Capability:** Features needed to serve
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- **Market Readiness:** Customers ready to adopt
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- **Addressable Switching:** Can reach and convert
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Formula:
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```
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SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness %
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```
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### Step 7: Estimate SOM
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Calculate realistic obtainable market share:
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**Conservative Approach (Recommended):**
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- Year 3: 2-3% of SAM
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- Year 5: 4-6% of SAM
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**Consider:**
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- Competitive intensity
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- Available resources (funding, team)
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- Go-to-market effectiveness
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- Differentiation strength
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### Step 8: Create Market Sizing Report
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Generate a comprehensive markdown report with:
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**Section 1: Executive Summary**
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- Market opportunity in one paragraph
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- TAM/SAM/SOM headline numbers
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**Section 2: Market Definition**
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- Problem being solved
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- Target customer profile
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- Geographic scope
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- Time horizon
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**Section 3: Bottom-Up Analysis**
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- Customer segment breakdown
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- Segment sizing with sources
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- TAM calculation with formula
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- Assumptions documented
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**Section 4: Top-Down Validation**
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- Industry category and size
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- Filter application
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- Validated TAM
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- Comparison to bottom-up
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**Section 5: SAM Calculation**
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- Filters applied with rationale
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- SAM formula and result
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- Segment-level breakdown
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**Section 6: SOM Projection**
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- Market share assumptions
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- Year 3 and Year 5 estimates
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- Customer count implications
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- Revenue projections
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**Section 7: Market Growth**
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- Industry growth rate (CAGR)
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- Key growth drivers
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- 5-year market evolution
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**Section 8: Validation and Sanity Checks**
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- Public company comparisons
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- Customer count validation
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- Competitive context
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**Section 9: Investment Thesis**
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- Market opportunity assessment
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- Key positives and risks
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- Venture-scale potential
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- Next steps
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### Step 9: Save Report
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Offer to save the report as a markdown file:
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- Suggest filename: `market-opportunity-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md`
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- Use Write tool to create file
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- Confirm file location with user
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## Tips for Best Results
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**Do:**
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- Start with bottom-up (most credible)
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- Always triangulate with top-down
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- Cite all data sources
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- Document every assumption
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- Be conservative on SOM
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- Compare to public company benchmarks
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- Explain any data gaps or limitations
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**Don't:**
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- Rely solely on top-down
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- Cherry-pick optimistic data
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- Claim >10% SOM without strong justification
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- Mix methodologies inappropriately
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- Ignore competitive context
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- Skip validation steps
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## Example Usage
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```
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User: /market-opportunity
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Claude: I'll help you create a comprehensive market opportunity analysis. Let me start by gathering some context.
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What product or service are you analyzing?
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→ "AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce companies"
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Who are your target customers?
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→ "E-commerce companies with $1M+ annual revenue in North America"
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What's your pricing model?
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→ "Subscription: $50-500/month based on email volume, average $300/month"
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[Claude proceeds with analysis, gathering data, calculating TAM/SAM/SOM, and generating report]
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```
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## Integration with Other Commands
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This command pairs well with:
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- `/financial-projections` - Use SOM to build revenue model
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- `/business-case` - Include market sizing in business case
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## Notes
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- Market sizing typically takes 30-60 minutes for thorough analysis
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- Quality depends on data availability - explain limitations
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- Update annually as market evolves
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- Conservative estimates build credibility with investors
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